Last House Republican who backed Trump’s impeachment seeks reelection in redrawn seat
Rep. David Valadao, a California Republican, is defending his House seat against Democrat Randy Villegas in the Nov. 3 contest after voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, legislation expected to reduce Medicaid spending by more than $900 billion through 2034. Roughly 6 in 10 of the constituents of Valadao’s Central Valley district are enrolled in Medicaid, and the two campaigns describe the law’s effect on that coverage differently. Valadao was first elected to the House in 2012 and lost the seat in 2018; he is the last remaining Republican House incumbent who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol to run for reelection to Congress.
The law’s provisions include stricter Medicaid eligibility rules, reduced federal money to states, new work requirements and twice-a-year eligibility checks. NPR described the twice-yearly checks as starting after the midterm elections “by political design.” NPR also described the Center for American Progress as “left-leaning.” Researchers at the think tank estimated the provisions could push more than 2 million Californians off their coverage and that California stands to lose about $30 billion a year in federal Medicaid funding, more than any other state. In Valadao’s district alone, an estimated 60,000 more residents could be without coverage by 2034 due to the law and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act insurance plans, the think tank said.
Valadao has defended his vote. During a televised Oct. 6 debate, he said “there are no actual cuts” to Medicaid. He also said during the debate that he was among the negotiators who secured community engagement provisions in the law, which will require certain adults on Medicaid to prove they’re working or completing other activities such as job training or volunteering. “It’s not an actual cut,” Valadao said. “We need people to actually put in and make a fair effort to try to cover their expenses and be a part of their community. This is not an unreasonable ask.”
Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas on Nov. 3. NPR described Villegas, a political science professor backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as a “populist” who favors a single-payer universal healthcare system. Villegas has embraced a “Medicare for All” platform and made Valadao’s vote a central issue. He called the vote “that is going to rip away healthcare from Valley families” because many working-age adults may not satisfy new work requirements and twice-a-year eligibility checks. “The system that we have now, we pay twice as much as other countries across the world, despite the fact that we have worse healthcare outcomes,” Villegas said during the debate.
Ulises Hernandez, 41, of Bakersfield, has had health coverage through Medicaid for as long as he can remember. In September, after a dental crown slipped down his throat during a procedure, he spent eight hours in an emergency room waiting for care and more than two days without food, the longest he has ever waited for care. Sitting in his wheelchair outside Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao’s Bakersfield office in what NPR described as a protest of looming federal Medicaid cuts, Hernandez described his wait as a foreshadowing of what’s ahead. “I couldn’t eat, I couldn’t drink, I couldn’t do anything, and I was in pain,” said Hernandez, who had been discharged from the hospital a few days before. “I’m livid.” Hernandez said Valadao “should be ashamed of himself” for voting for the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He plans to vote for challenger Randy Villegas in hopes that this Central Valley toss-up district, where roughly 6 in 10 of constituents are enrolled in Medicaid, can help give Democrats control of Congress.
Bakersfield is an oil town, and it wears that identity proudly: pump jacks nod in the distance, and streets run wide. The Kern River’s bed lies dry, its water siphoned to feed the agricultural fields. The city sits partially in the southernmost portion of the contested congressional district, produces much from the land, and has high unemployment.
Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in voter registrations by double-digit percentage points in Valadao’s district since he was first elected to the House in 2012, yet he has won six of his seven congressional elections. Valadao lost in 2018, when Democrats targeted his votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act as well as his alliance with Trump. “Valadao knows that he’s on notice,” said Jeffrey Cummins, a political science professor at California State University-Fresno. Valadao has survived by focusing on local issues such as water infrastructure and distancing himself from the Trump administration, Cummins said. “This is an area where, even when we see the registration advantage for Democrats, that they are moderate Democrats who tend to be concerned with agricultural issues, and Valadao in the past has successfully appeased those voters,” Cummins said.
California’s congressional map was redrawn last year as part of a national mid-decade redistricting fight, and Valadao’s Central Valley seat is considered more favorable for Democrats than before. Cummins said a different mix of voters, coupled with anger toward incumbents, could flip the seat.
Nationwide, healthcare costs remain a top affordability concern for voters, and they trust Democrats over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin on the issue, according to a September KFF poll.
On Sept. 30, Valadao held a $1,000-a-ticket fundraiser hosted by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is campaigning across 22 states in six weeks as Republicans try to hold the chamber. Neither lawmaker mentioned Medicaid or the rising cost of healthcare when they spoke to the audience. Afterward, press were allowed at an invitation-only reelection event in Bakersfield, held in an office building just outside of the new district Valadao hopes to represent, where arches of red, white and blue star-shaped balloons framed the small stage.
After brief speeches, Valadao repeatedly refused to answer KFF Health News’ questions about his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its impact on his constituents’ Medicaid coverage, saying, “I think you are distorting the truth.” Of the half dozen attendees KFF Health News approached among roughly 50 in the room, none lived in Valadao’s district. They came anyway. Charlotte Brandt, a retired nurse who lives in the neighboring Republican-held district, follows Valadao’s votes closely. She called him “a hero for the Central Valley,” citing his work on water, oil and agriculture, which she said sustain Kern County as the “breadbasket of the world.” Her daughter, Allison Brandt Oliver, who also lives in Republican Vince Fong’s district, said she favored the stricter Medicaid eligibility rules Republicans put into place. Her concern, she said, is whether spending is going to U.S. citizens who contribute to the economy.
In a sign of how vital this district is, Republicans and Democrats have each booked more than $16 million in ads here through Election Day, for a combined total of more than $32 million, according to data compiled by AdImpact. “When you start getting over $10 million of spending total in the district, I would say that that’s pretty high,” Cummins said.
Some of the ads are reaching voters in unexpected ways. Outside a local library, Seslie Maese, a stay-at-home mom from Bakersfield, said her 7-year-old, who often watches Lego videos on YouTube, runs to her whenever a certain ad plays. “David Valadago is going on vacation again, Mom,” he’ll tell her, mispronouncing the congressman’s name. Her son doesn’t realize that the ad, paid for by a Democratic political action committee, is a criticism of Valadao. Maese is undecided even though she is a registered Republican. She said what she has heard about Valadao doesn’t sound positive, such as that he went back on his pledge not to cut Medicaid for vulnerable populations by voting for the federal tax-and-spending law. For Maese, a politician who says one thing and does another is a deal-breaker. “He just hasn’t come through with anything he said,” she said, “especially since he cut off a lot of Medicaid.”
NPR produced this reporting in partnership with KFF Health News, a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF, the independent source for health policy research, polling and journalism.