Lula wins Brazil runoff as France and Serbia protests expand
NPR’s Up First newsletter reported on Oct. 26 that the Cook Political Report rated only five of 15 congressional districts drawn specifically to favor Republicans as likely or solid Republican. The issue also covered Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff victory in Brazil, youth-led protest movements in France and Serbia, maternity-cost guidance, AI hurricane forecasting and U.S. measles and fertility figures.
Electoral maps, voter support and Brazil’s runoff
Republicans had planned to redraw congressional district lines before the midterms to help preserve House control and avoid the historical pattern of heavy midterm losses. President Trump began pressuring Republican-led states to do so last year, but NPR reported that Republicans could spend millions of dollars on House seats that were supposed to be easy wins and lose them anyway. Of the 15 districts drawn specifically to favor Republicans, only five were rated by the Cook Political Report as either likely or solid Republican; most of the others are toss-ups or lean toward a Democratic win.
NPR’s Tamara Keith told Up First that some district lines had been drawn based on President Trump’s 2024 electorate. Since then, his support had weakened, particularly among young and Latino voters, while several Democratic incumbents targeted by redistricting had stayed in their races to fight for their seats. A Republican strategist involved with midterm races, but who was not authorized to speak publicly, pushed back on the characterization that redistricting had failed. The strategist said redistricting “creates new battlefields” but does not “create outcomes.”
NPR reported that leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, by more than 4 million votes to win a fourth term in Brazil’s presidential runoff. It was the first time since Brazil restored democracy in 1989 that a candidate who finished second in the first round went on to win the presidency.
NPR’s Carrie Kahn said Lula’s victory appeared to put the brake on a right-wing sweep in Latin America. The newsletter said seven conservative presidents had been elected in the past 18 months. Kahn said one campaign message helped rally voters during the final weeks: that the return of a Bolsonaro to power would be an existential threat to Brazilian democracy.
Student movements link policy grievances to political accountability
Large demonstrations against the French government continued over the weekend. More than 100,000 people showed up in Paris and more than 400,000 came out nationwide. What began with students demanding better conditions had expanded into a broader movement, with unions and public-sector workers calling for more public spending and protesting growing inequality. Similar protests erupted across Europe from Spain to Serbia.
NPR’s Eleanor Beardsley said the reasons behind the protests varied, from schools and housing costs to corruption, but most were leaderless movements by young people frustrated with the world they were being left to. In Serbia, crowds celebrated in the streets of Belgrade after the student-led “student-list” defeated the party of Aleksandar Vucic in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. NPR described Vucic as a “longtime strongman.” The win followed two years of protests over government corruption and a lack of accountability.
Maternity coverage and national health indicators
A healthcare section said out-of-pocket maternity expenses are difficult to predict. A federal requirement for insurers to provide personalized cost estimates under the No Surprises Act was supposed to take effect in 2022, but federal regulators had not implemented it despite pressure from Congress.
The newsletter advised parents to enroll their baby within 30 days of birth for most employer health plans, check their maximum out-of-pocket expense and choose in-network providers whenever possible. It also recommended reviewing every bill, appealing errors and asking hospitals or other providers about financial assistance. For covered, in-network expenses, the maximum out-of-pocket expense is the most a person would pay each year before insurance pays 100% of the costs.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 confirmed measles cases across the U.S. this year through Oct. 22, more than double the total for all of 2025, with cases particularly high in Pennsylvania. The CDC also reported that the general fertility rate for U.S. women fell 1% to a record low in 2025. Birth rates declined among women in their 20s but rose among women ages 30 to 45.
AI models gain ground in hurricane forecasting
The deep dive examined Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall in Destin, Fla., as a Category 2 storm. Google DeepMind’s AI model outperformed the traditional model by correctly predicting that the storm would hit the Florida Panhandle rather than head west toward Louisiana.
Forecasters said they increasingly relied on AI and that it was rapidly transforming the field. The National Hurricane Center first began incorporating Google DeepMind into its official forecasts last year, and by the end of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the AI system was among the best at predicting storm strength and path. Traditional physics-based models use real-time data such as temperature, humidity, pressure and wind shear, while AI models rely more on historical patterns drawn from thousands of past storms.
AI models can feel like a black box; meteorologists depend on them but do not always know why their predictions are correct. Humans still interpret model results and translate them into guidance people can act on.
A Syrian breakfast tradition
The newsletter’s closing items included NPR’s Breakfast Around the World visit to the ancient city of Aleppo in northern Syria, where the sweet semolina pudding mamounieh evokes bitter and sweet memories.