Polls show Graham and Andrews tied, or within or just outside the margin of error
President Donald Trump returned to South Carolina on Oct. 29 for his second visit to the state in eight days, headlining a rally in Rock Hill for Republican Senate nominee Darline Graham in the final days before Election Day. The visit came as the attention and money flowing into the state’s U.S. Senate race raised questions about just how safely Republican the seat is in a state known as ruby red — one Trump carried by 18 points two years ago.
Gavin Jackson of South Carolina Public Radio covered the rally and told NPR the state is showing signs of becoming less reliably Republican. “I used to say that we’re a red state wedged between two purple states,” Jackson said, “and while we are still a very Republican state, there are some purple cracks that are appearing.”
Graham is running for a full term after being appointed to the seat her brother, Lindsey, held until his death in July; Trump urged her to seek the term. She emerged from a bruising August primary and a runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, and Jackson said fissures from that contest have only widened, especially among Norman’s supporters. The rally took place in Rock Hill — in the backyard of her runoff opponent — and some of Norman’s hardcore voters, Jackson said, think it may be easier to replace a Democrat in six years than a Republican named Graham.
Trump used the appearance to attack Andrews, the Democratic nominee and a pediatrician. Jackson said Trump repeatedly called her by anti-trans slurs as he worked to turn out low-propensity voters. “A vote for Darline is a vote to cast communists into political oblivion,” Trump said, according to a recording of the rally aired by NPR. Jackson said the aim of the second visit was to enthuse Republicans and make sure they do not stay home on Tuesday.
The stakes have pushed Republicans toward a unity message. Jackson said Republican candidates’ closing arguments this week have centered on the need to unify or risk losing the Senate and the House, all because of South Carolina. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz told Republicans in Myrtle Beach on Monday that Democrats will go after Trump if they take the Senate.
The money is flowing into the race as well. NPR’s Stephen Fowler, using AdImpact tracking data, found that both parties have put about $40 million into the contest in the past month — four times as much as was planned a month earlier.
Recent surveys show how tight the race is. Jackson said Graham and Andrews are tied in a New York Times/Siena poll and within or just outside the margin of error in The Citadel’s poll released Tuesday. Andrews, he said, is peaking at the right time, fueling Democratic hopes of winning a seat the party has not held since 1998. A Republican pollster Jackson spoke with is nervous but sees a four-point race for Graham, with the write-in Ralph movement, candidate apathy and third-party candidates likely to make it closer than ever.
The Senate contest is also reaching down the ballot, Jackson said, most visibly in the 1st Congressional District, where candidates are competing to replace outgoing Republican Rep. Nancy Mace. The Lowcountry coastal district flipped to a Democrat in the 2018 midterms before Mace won it back in 2020. Republicans now fear Democrat Nancy Lacore could flip it back even though the district was bolstered by redistricting in 2022. Jackson said Lacore is capitalizing on the political environment and showing an independent streak that appeals to South Carolina voters.