UCLA analysis finds 42% of DOJ-flagged California voter names missing from rolls

Researchers estimate nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens were likely marked ineligible in error

More than 4 in 10 names that the Trump administration flagged as possible noncitizen voters in California cannot be found on the state’s voter rolls, according to a legal filing made Saturday by the Los Angeles-based Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, or CHIRLA. The filing reports that 8,880 of the 20,930 names on the Justice Department’s list — 42% of the entire list — do not correspond to anyone in California’s current voter file.

The underlying analysis was conducted by two members of UCLA’s Voting Rights Project, who filed a lawsuit challenging the list alongside CHIRLA. It is the first outside examination of the roster, which the Justice Department has used to threaten prosecution of election officials.

The department demanded that California election officials treat the 20,930 names as possible illegal voters by separating their ballots during the vote count on Election Day. Multiple judges have rejected the demand as unconstitutional and a threat to democracy, and local and state officials have said the list appears riddled with errors.

Beyond the unmatched names, the research found at least 22 people on the list are U.S. citizens, and said many more may correspond to those of confirmed citizens. Applying the government’s methodology, the researchers estimated nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens in the state were “highly likely” to be incorrectly flagged as ineligible.

The filing, which was cosigned by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for California governor and an adviser to the UCLA Voting Rights Project, said the expert analysis makes clear the mandated voter list endangers a significant number of eligible California voters.

Saturday’s broader analysis was possible because a federal judge on Friday ordered the Trump administration to share the list with the plaintiffs in the case. Also on Friday, a federal judge in California ordered the Justice Department to stop sending demands to state officials — a decision the administration appealed Saturday. Several counties in the state had run quick checks of the list and found numerous errors.

The Justice Department has also warned California election officials they could face criminal liability if they let noncitizens vote, and has issued subpoenas to election offices there. Election officials have complained that the administration confronted them with lists of possible illegal voters at the last minute before Election Day, with no time to conduct the painstaking investigation required by law before removing someone from the rolls.

The researchers noted the administration apparently removed the voter identification number from the names on the list, making it harder for election officials to determine whether flagged individuals were already on their rolls or were duplicates within the Justice Department’s list. They described the voter ID number as the most crucial data point.

In a social media post Saturday, Trump claimed his Justice Department found “20,000, but potentially Hundreds of Thousands, and maybe even Millions,” of fraudulent votes, “and the Court has just ruled against it. Why would they reject fixing Election Fraud?” The post followed legal rulings against his effort to force California to separate votes cast by individuals his administration labels suspected noncitizens, even though one came from a judge he himself nominated.

The administration had objected to sharing the list, calling it a “fishing expedition” and noting that it included sensitive information.

The administration has also urged Washington state to remove what it says were 400 possible noncitizens on its rolls. State election officials there say that list is also unreliable and includes one voter who cast ballots in the 1990s.

CHIRLA and the UCLA project sued the Homeland Security Department in early October to prevent it from using federal immigration data to challenge state voter rolls. The lawsuit cited examples in other states where the federal government’s data has been proven to mistakenly include thousands of citizens. It argued the data-matching methods risk disenfranchising or deterring citizens from voting, and that the lists could disproportionately target naturalized citizens who are legally entitled to vote.

The Justice Department argues there is just as much to lose if the ballots are not separated. “Every ballot cast by an ineligible voter cancels out the vote of an American citizen,” department spokesperson Kiersten V. Pels wrote in an email. “The Department makes no apology for protecting those votes.”

Multiple lawsuits have been filed seeking to stop the administration from continuing to threaten local election officials.