Congress control calls may take days after Tuesday's election

California mail ballots and ranked-choice voting can delay results

The Associated Press said it will call all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests up for election this year, but the organization cannot say when control of Congress will become clear.

The current House math is close. Control requires 218 seats, and 219 members currently caucus with Republicans, one more than the minimum majority when all seats are filled. Two House seats are vacant.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 53-47 edge. Democrats need 51 seats for control, while Republicans need 50 because Vice President JD Vance can cast the tiebreaking vote for his party.

The Associated Press said it does not make projections. It will declare a winner only after determining that no scenario would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap.

During the 2022 midterm elections, the Associated Press called Senate control four days after Election Day and House control eight days after.

In the 2024 presidential cycle, Senate control was called the day after Election Day, while the House call came eight days later.

California, the nation’s most populous state, has seen thousands of mail ballots dropped off on Election Day. In 2022, half of the state’s votes were counted after Election Day. The Associated Press noted that states such as California consistently take days to count all their ballots.

Alaska and Maine, which have key Senate races this year, use ranked-choice voting. A candidate can win with more than 50% of the votes in the first round.

If no candidate reaches that threshold, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and the eliminated candidate’s votes are redistributed to each voter’s second choice. The Associated Press said the process can significantly delay results.

Those circumstances leave the date of a congressional-control call unsettled. California’s late counting and the ranked-choice rounds in Alaska and Maine can extend the process, while the Associated Press’s method requires a race to remain uncalled whenever a scenario would let a trailing candidate close the gap.