Polls show narrower Democratic lead in competitive House seats

Alaska certification suit targets close Senate race

Ten days before Election Day, national polling shows a wide Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot, but the advantage shrinks to two or three points in the small number of House districts that could change hands, NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson said in a politics chat hosted by Ayesha Rascoe. Rascoe noted that many votes had already been cast but that pollsters continued their work. Liasson said most of the Senate races that could determine control, including Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, remain too close to call.

The distance between the national House ballot and the small number of competitive districts helps determine the size of a House majority Democrats would win if they took the chamber, while close Senate races, including Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, will shape the contest for control of the upper chamber. NPR’s summary of the segment described a more complicated picture of Democratic momentum in the few truly competitive midterm House seats, and said Republicans are on defense in the Senate.

The national numbers are worse for Republicans than the seat-by-seat picture. Liasson said polls show Donald Trump at his lowest approval rating ever. Citing a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll, she said 71% of voters say gas is unaffordable, a 43% jump from February, and that Trump’s approval rating on the economy has fallen from 45% in February to under 30%. Liasson said those figures do not show whether former Trump supporters will turn out and vote for Democrats, but they do “show you how deep the hole Republicans are in.”

Whether the polls are accurate was an open question, Rascoe said, noting that polling firms have produced some shaky performances in recent years. Liasson said it would be known on Election Day whether the polls were accurate, and that consumers of polls should keep in mind that the generic congressional ballot question can be confusing.

The generic congressional ballot question itself carries a caveat. Liasson said the question asks voters whether they prefer “a generic Democrat or a generic Republican” to win their House seat, and is meant to serve as a proxy for the national popular vote for the House. She said it “keeps on getting bigger for Democrats,” and that its usefulness has faded with “extreme gerrymandering,” which has left comparatively few competitive districts — those that went for Harris or Trump by 5 points or less.

Because so few districts are competitive, Liasson said, the more relevant measure is the generic congressional ballot in those dozen or so competitive seats. In those districts, she said, Democrats lead by only two or three points, rather than the 8, 9 or 11 points they hold in the national generic ballot question. Those close House races, Liasson said, are the ones that will determine how large a majority Democrats win if they take the chamber.

The Senate is a different contest, Liasson said, because every race is statewide. Most of the races that will determine control of the chamber, including Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, are toss-ups, she said. Trump won those states back in 2024 by an average of 13 points, and they remain very red, Liasson said. Democrats, she said, have to do more than motivate their base, because the Democratic base is not large enough in those states; they have to flip Republican votes, which she described as difficult among voters in red states who have voted Republican their whole lives. Those states, she said, remain too close to call.

One state has taken an unusual turn. Liasson said the Trump administration has asked a federal court to block certification of the Senate election results in Alaska if the Republican incumbent narrowly loses, a step that has never happened before. The administration’s argument, Liasson said, is that two candidates with similar names appear on the ballot: Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Liasson said the Trump administration contends that voters could be confused about which Dan Sullivan they selected, and that voters might mistakenly vote for the wrong Dan Sullivan. The dispute has already gone to the Alaska state courts, which have ruled that it is fine for both men to appear on the ballot.

The race itself is close. Liasson said Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has been running ahead by a few points of Dan S. Sullivan. Election experts, Liasson said, consider the lawsuit unlikely to prevail, since the Constitution gives states, not the federal government, the right to control the way elections are conducted. The lawsuit seeks a delay in certification until it can investigate whether voters really meant to cast their votes for the Dan Sullivan they chose, Liasson said, adding that it was unclear how the administration would carry out such an investigation.

In Ohio, the Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is running a controversial advertisement that features the mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, telling voters that she is a liar and that they should not vote for her. Liasson said Acton and her brother were removed from the custody of their mother more than 50 years ago after her stepfather was indicted for raping her. Many Republicans have spoken out against the advertisement, Liasson said, including the governor of Ohio, who called it “just plain wrong.” Trump, Liasson said, says he thinks the ad is great. Liasson said the controversy raises the question of whether anyone besides Trump can pull off “this kind of campaigning.”

Former President Barack Obama campaigned in Ohio this weekend. In an archived recording of his remarks, Obama asked, “And there’s gold everywhere. What’s up with the gold?” and said of the current president, “He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory.” Rascoe noted that Trump was not on the ballot, but remained a subject of the Ohio campaign discussion.

None of the polling settles the questions before voters go to the polls, Liasson said. Many votes had already been cast, but that had not stopped the pollsters, and polling accuracy would be tested on Election Day. For the House, the gap between the national ballot and the competitive districts leaves the size of any Democratic majority uncertain. For the Senate, close races, including Alaska, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, will shape the contest for control, and the fight over Alaska’s certification is a dispute Liasson said has no precedent.