Sixty-one percent wrongly believe US is already in a recession
The survey, conducted online from September 24 to October 3 among 3,998 US adults, found pessimism cutting across the political spectrum. Three-quarters of Americans expressed concern about a recession, and 61% said the country was already in one — a misperception, since the United States is not currently in recession under the standard definition.
The poll captures a shift among independent voters, who are expected to decide competitive House and Senate races. In September 2024, during the presidential campaign, 48% of independents said the economy was worse than the year before. In the latest poll, that share stood at 65%.
Republican optimism has also eroded. In February 2025, weeks after Trump’s second inauguration, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks on Iran, that figure had risen to 49%. In the new poll, it fell to 28%.
Inflation has run high enough to shape those perceptions. Annualized prices rose 3.7% in September, the highest reading before a midterm election excluding the pandemic era since 1990, according to recent data cited in the reporting. Energy prices have risen sharply since the Iran war, with average pump prices crossing $1.20 more per gallon than a year ago. California drivers, paying the highest prices in the country, were spending an average of $6.20 per gallon, according to AAA.
Democratic candidates in competitive races have built their closing messages around those costs. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate in a closely watched US Senate race in Texas, appeared in a campaign ad holding a paper bag of groceries, saying, “Too many Texans feel like they’re drowning, the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare.” Abdul el-Sayed, another Democratic candidate for a US Senate race in Michigan, told a recent campaign event, “They say I can’t win because of my name,” and added, “My name is not the reason your gas prices are through the roof. My name is not the reason you can’t afford your groceries.”
The poll found near-universal agreement that there is an affordability crisis — 96% of Republicans joined that view. But Americans remained divided over which party offers a solution. Seventy-one percent of Democrats said their own party did, compared with 59% of Republicans. Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say neither party has a solution, at 26% to 17%. Among independents, half said neither party had a solution, while 14% sided with Democrats and 10% with Republicans.
Rural Americans, considered a core base for Trump, were the most likely to say neither party has an answer, at 41%, compared with 35% of suburban and 27% of urban respondents. Four in 10 rural Americans said they are living in “survival mode,” where a single surprise bill could sink them, compared with 35% of urban and 27% of suburban Americans. On gas prices, 46% of rural Americans blamed the US government, compared with 28% of Republicans overall — the lowest share of any group surveyed. Republicans were likelier to spread blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations.