South Africans cast local ballots as polls project an ANC vote-share decline

Service failures and fragmented voting could shift control of city coalition governments

South Africans went to the polls Wednesday in local elections held amid deep discontent over water outages, power cuts and crumbling infrastructure. The African National Congress remained on course to be the largest party, but polls put it below one-third of the vote. Fragmented voting could leave the party leading many city coalition governments while losing control of others.

The Guardian described the ANC as a former liberation movement that Nelson Mandela led to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid as South Africa’s first Black president. Polls projected the party’s vote share below one-third, down from 45.6% at the 2021 municipal elections and 40.2% in the 2024 national elections.

South Africa’s electoral commission has one week to announce the final results of Wednesday’s vote for councillors and parties. Mayors are not directly elected; parties have two weeks from the announcement to form councils and elect mayors.

The national ranking did not settle municipal control. The Guardian reported that vote fragmentation could still leave the ANC leading many city coalition governments while losing others. Unstable coalitions are already a feature of many of South Africa’s 257 municipalities, and analysts cited by The Guardian pointed to high government turnover as a major reason for poor service delivery.

Service failures and frequent political turnover were especially visible across Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous and densely populated province and its economic engine. Johannesburg, a city of 4.8 million people, has faced water shortages for more than a week and has had 10 mayors in as many years. Neighboring Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021. To the north, Tshwane, which contains the capital, Pretoria, has rotated its mayoralty between parties four times since 2020. Election posters in Pretoria last week were photographed by Themba Hadebe/AP. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit in eastern Tshwane.

Polls put the Democratic Alliance ahead in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, although its support had not exceeded 40% in any of the three metros. The Guardian characterized the DA as “centre-right, white-led.” According to South African media, the ANC’s national leadership was open to working with the DA in Gauteng, mirroring the government of national unity, where the two parties are the largest in the national coalition. Local ANC leaders were reportedly not in favor of a DA tie-up. Across Gauteng’s three metros, the ANC currently governs with a combination of the Economic Freedom Fighters, the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA; The Guardian described the EFF as “far-left” and the Patriotic Alliance as “populist.”

In Johannesburg, a photograph by Kim Ludbrook/EPA showed the DA’s Helen Zille campaigning to become mayor. The Guardian reported that Zille, 75 and a former Cape Town mayor, had led a spirited campaign that included viral stunts: she snorkelled in a pothole and kayaked along a flooded street. The Guardian also reported that many voters, especially Black voters, viewed Zille with suspicion because of controversial past comments that appeared to excuse colonialism. Some voters pointed to soaring housing costs in Cape Town, which the DA has run since 2006, as a reason not to vote for Zille.

ActionSA was polling around 10%. Its leader, former Johannesburg DA mayor Herman Mashaba, ruled out working with Zille in Johannesburg. The Guardian reported that Mashaba has called Zille a “racist,” an allegation she has always fervently denied. The ANC had three possible mayoral candidates for the city amid factional infighting.

The Guardian reported that the uMkhonto we Sizwe party of former ANC president Jacob Zuma was polling above 40% in eThekwini, the metro that contains the port city of Durban. An AP photograph showed Zuma addressing an election rally in KwaMashu, north of Durban, on Sunday. Zuma, 84, has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations and was set to take many votes from his former party. The ANC won 42% in eThekwini in 2021 but was polling around 10%.

The Guardian also reported that the DA looked set to retain its Cape Town majority, although probably with less than the 58% of the vote it won in 2021, as unaffordable housing turned more voters against the party. An ANC poster in Langa township in Cape Town was photographed by Esa Alexander/Reuters.

The coming negotiations over those councils will determine which parties govern municipalities facing water shortages, power cuts and crumbling infrastructure, even if the ANC finishes as the largest party.