Uncalled races could give Democrats a 10-4 congressional delegation

The Associated Press has called five U.S. House races in North Carolina for Democrats, all of them in districts drawn to favor Republican candidates, and four of those districts are flipping from Republican control. As of Thursday, the AP had called nine of the state’s 14 House seats for Democrats and none for Republicans. The state’s House delegation went into Tuesday with 10 Republicans and four Democrats.

If all of the remaining results hold, the delegation would flip from 10 Republicans and four Democrats to 10 Democrats and four Republicans. North Carolina’s congressional map was redrawn in 2023 to significantly favor Republican candidates, and the four flipping districts all performed that way in 2024.

The AP’s Thursday calls included High Point Mayor Cyril Jefferson over first-term incumbent Rep. Addison McDowell in the Triad’s 6th Congressional District, and former West Virginia state Sen. Richard Ojeda over National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Richard Hudson in the 9th Congressional District.

Paul Barringer won the 13th Congressional District, which wraps around the Raleigh exurbs, over first-term incumbent Rep. Brad Knott. LaKesha Womack won the 14th Congressional District over first-term incumbent Rep. Tim Moore, who previously served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.

The 14th District was the closest of the four in 2024, with Moore winning by about 16%. The 6th District was the least competitive, with McDowell winning by more than 38%.

The AP also called northeastern North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District for incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis on Thursday. Legislative Republicans redrew that district last year in an effort to make it easier for GOP candidates to win there, pulling Republican-leaning counties from the state’s 3rd Congressional District. Yet Davis led Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout by more than 10,000 votes as of Thursday, a larger margin than he won by in 2024.

North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District is one of five in the state that remained uncalled as of Thursday. Incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Murphy led Democrat Raymond Smith by just 233 votes in a district where Democrats did not run a candidate in 2024, and the race is likely headed for a recount.

In the 5th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Chuck Hubbard led 11-term Republican incumbent Rep. Virginia Foxx by 99 votes, in another race that may go to a recount.

One of the candidates vying to replace Hudson as NRCC chairman, U.S. Rep. Brian Jack of Georgia, wrote in a letter to fellow House Republicans that fellow GOP lawmakers may have contributed to the challenging environment. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, won the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat by nearly 20%.

“When Senate Republicans withdrew support from North Carolina weeks ago, they created a cascade that likely swept away many of our colleagues from that state,” Jack wrote.