Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas as toss-ups
Four days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Senate control may come down to a cluster of races in states Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024, according to NPR’s review of the competitive map. The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas as Toss Ups, and Democrats need to flip a net of four Republican-held seats to win control of the chamber.
When the election cycle began, Democrats were seen as a longshot to pick up the Senate because so many of the seats on the ballot are in red states. As the year has gone on and the war in Iran has continued, the field has widened considerably, NPR reported. Polling, ad money and candidate and surrogate travel have all indicated competitive races in places Trump won by double digits in 2024, and the races in those states are within the margin of error.
“I’m very energized,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is charged with trying to elect Democrats to the Senate. “We have so many candidates running in so many deep red and purple places, and they are winning, and it is exciting. People want change, and we have so much talent on the field right now. I feel very inspired.”
Republicans see the races differently. “Senate Democrats’ socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal,” said Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the counterpart to the DSCC. Breslin was referring to a controversy in the Alaska Senate race over the alleged involvement of members of the campaign for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan to run, as first reported by The New York Times. The Republican incumbent is Dan Sullivan.
“Common-sense voters across red-leaning battlegrounds are preparing to reject the dangerously unaffordable agendas of Abdul El-Sayed [in Michigan], Troy Jackson [in Maine], and Mary Peltola — along with the Democrat Party’s dying brand,” Breslin said.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate, and while the field is wide for them, winning control is far from assured. Republicans still have a few targets on the board, principally in Michigan but also in New Hampshire and Minnesota; winning even one of those would seriously complicate Democrats’ math, NPR reported.
The key to whether Democrats win the Senate — and how large any Democratic wave is, if there is one at all — is likely to be Republican turnout, according to NPR. Low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven.
The shifting ratings show the direction the winds have been blowing. North Carolina, where Trump won narrowly and which opened the cycle as a Toss Up, is now seen as a likely flip for Democrats. Georgia, once thought to be a top Republican target, is now a likely hold for Democrats. South Carolina, a state Trump won by 18 points, is only leaning Republican, and Mississippi and Nebraska are more competitive than Republicans would like even though GOP candidates are favored there.
NPR organized the competitive races into five tiers, ordered from most to least likely to flip, using Cook Political Report ratings. Within each tier, states are listed alphabetically.
North Carolina — Likely D. The seat is open with Sen. Tillis retiring, and both parties concede former Gov. Roy Cooper is likely to be the state’s next senator. “He’s going to become your senator,” Trump said during a stop in North Carolina this month, “and it’s crazy.” Trump carried the state by 3 points in 2024.
Michigan — Toss Up. Republicans’ best pickup opportunity, the open seat left by retiring Democratic Sen. Peters tests whether a bold progressive can win in a purple state: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, whom NPR reported has turned to MAGA and used racist attacks to try to win. Trump carried Michigan by 1 point in 2024.
Ohio — Toss Up. Sherrod Brown’s decision to try for a comeback after being ousted in 2024 upended the race; he is the challenger, but with his high name recognition and time in the Senate, Republicans have treated him as an incumbent. Trump has tried to boost incumbent Sen. John Husted with explicit comments on his physique, but the economy, gas prices and AI data center growth have given Democrats a pathway back in a state Trump has won three times. Trump carried Ohio by 11 points in 2024.
Alaska — Toss Up. The hijinks and misinformation ahead of the election underscore the state’s importance, NPR reported. Peltola appeared to have the inside track, but the late recruiting scandal threatens to derail that momentum. Trump carried Alaska by 14 points in 2024.
Iowa — Toss Up. Democrat Josh Turek is in a tight race with Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat Sen. Ernst is leaving open. Tariffs, the war and rising diesel prices have hurt the agricultural economy and put Republicans on the defensive, and Democrats could get help from the gubernatorial run of Rob Sand, whose campaign NPR described as one of the best of any candidate in the country. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points.
Maine — Toss Up. The only Toss Up state won by Kamala Harris in 2024, Maine gives Democrat Troy Jackson a real shot at Sen. Susan Collins, who polls showed losing in 2020 before she managed a narrow win. The race is tight and Collins appears to be holding up, but the state’s Democratic base gives Jackson an opening. Harris carried Maine by 6 points.
Texas — Toss Up. State Rep. James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton for the seat left open when Sen. John Cornyn lost the primary. Trump endorsed Paxton, whom NPR described as the more MAGA-aligned and scandal-ridden candidate, in the primary runoff, and more than $500 million has been spent on the race since the primary — more than $300 million of it from Republicans. Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since 1994, and NPR noted it would be hard to see Republicans flipping Michigan while losing Texas, but that candidate quality in both places makes it possible. Talarico has led in almost every poll, even if the leads have been within the margin of error — a contrast with 2018, when Beto O’Rourke never led in a single poll before losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by less than 3 points. Whether Gina Hinojosa’s gubernatorial campaign gets close and turns out large numbers of Latino voters in South Texas could help Talarico over the finish line. Trump carried Texas by 13 points.
Kansas — Toss Up. Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall faces a strong challenge from pastor Adam Hamilton, with political headwinds from the effect of Trump’s policies on the state’s economy. Republicans insist Marshall will pull it off and note that his last race was closer than the lean of the state; the state’s heavy Republican lean makes a Democratic win seem less likely, though NPR noted that wild things happen in wave years. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points.
New Hampshire — Lean D. A top Republican target since the cycle began, when Republicans felt they got a big recruiting win with former Sen. Jon Sununu. They are hoping for a down-ballot effect with former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte favored to win the governorship, but the national political winds still make Rep. Chris Pappas the slight favorite. Harris carried New Hampshire by 3 points.
Minnesota — Lean D. The seat is open because Sen. Klobuchar ran for governor. Minnesota, one of only three states Harris won in 2024, has been moving in Republicans’ direction in the final days. Republicans have been trying to peg lapses in state oversight for a Medicare fraud scandal to Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and they like the race former NFL reporter Michelle Tafoya has been running. Hillary Clinton won the state by less than 2 points and Harris by 4, but the advantage still goes to Democrats. Harris carried Minnesota by 4 points.
South Carolina — Lean R. The seat is open after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, who was heavily favored before his death. Trump pushed for Graham’s sister, Darline, to take the seat, but she is a political novice and has been swamped on the air by ads boosting Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. Republicans have the edge because of the state’s lean — Trump carried it by 18 points — but Black turnout is the thing to watch; if it is presidential-level high, Democrats could have a shot.
Mississippi — Likely R. Democrats have said for months that this race could become competitive if the political winds got even stronger; that has happened, and they like their candidate. A flip would be a shocker in a state that went for Trump by more than 20 points: it votes heavily Republican despite its large Black population because white voters vote in extraordinarily high numbers for Republicans. Trump carried Mississippi by 22 points.
Nebraska — Likely R. No one is surprised this cycle by Dan Osborn’s independent candidacy, and Republicans are confident the seat held by Sen. Ricketts stays in their hands. But Osborn making this a race at all is an indication of the difficult national environment for Republicans and of the kinds of non-GOP candidates who can have appeal in red states — and an example of how weak the Democratic brand is in some of those places. Trump carried Nebraska by 20 points.
Georgia — Likely D. This was supposed to be a top Republican target, but Sen. Ossoff’s candidacy and his war chest have made him the heavy favorite. Once the race is official, the political world will be waiting for the launch of the Ossoff 2028 campaign. Trump carried Georgia by 2 points in 2024.