Trump endorsements yield nearly 97% win rate in Republican primaries

The 2026 US primary season concluded Sunday, setting the field for the November 3 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and shape both parties’ direction heading into the next presidential cycle. Democrats were leading the polls among voters as the primaries closed, amid widespread economic anxieties, a war with Iran and the continuation of the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda.

The House saw significant turnover this cycle, with 74 members departing — the most since 1992, according to a Pew Research Center tally. Of those outgoing lawmakers who sought other offices, only 13 won their primaries for governorships, the Senate or other offices; the remaining 15 were rejected by voters.

Among representatives who sought re-election, 11 lost their primaries — the second-highest total since 2022. Seven of those incumbents were Democrats. Two of those Democrats, Julie Johnson and Al Green, were unseated by other Democratic incumbents after Texas Republicans redistricted them into competition with each other.

Five sitting House Democrats lost renomination to newcomers, four of them to candidates with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America. In New York, Congressional Hispanic Caucus chair Adriano Espaillat fell to DSA member Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Rep. Dan Goldman lost to former DSA member Brad Lander. DSA member Claire Valdez won the primary to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez. In Colorado, DSA member Melat Kiros unseated 30-year incumbent Diana DeGette. In Michigan, DSA-endorsed Donovan McKinney defeated Rep. Shri Thanedar. All of those challengers are expected to win their seats in November because their districts lean heavily Democratic.

In Philadelphia, DSA-endorsed Chris Rabb won a Democratic primary in a deep-blue district and is expected to be elected to the House. “A lot of people were hoping that it was a blip, like oh well, this is a special case,” Rabb said. “We showed them a different way. So I think all of those things make this election cycle uniquely powerful in ways that most people could not anticipate, myself included.”

The fifth sitting Democrat to lose renomination was 78-year-old Rep. John Larson, whose challenger Luke Bronin, 47, argued to voters that the time had come to replace the incumbent with a younger candidate.

The battle for House control will hinge less on safe blue seats than on the 21 districts the Cook Political Report considers toss-ups. In those districts, the nominees were almost entirely backed by the political action committees of either the center-left New Democrat Coalition or the moderate Blue Dogs. “If Democrats are to win the majority in the House and/or the Senate, it will be because moderates flip seats from red to blue,” said Matt Bennett, an executive vice president at the centrist think tank Third Way.

There were exceptions to the pattern: former DSA member William Lawrence won the Democratic nomination to take on Republican incumbent Tom Barrett in a swing Michigan congressional district. In that state’s Democratic Senate primary, Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens, who was backed by much of the party establishment. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, through its United Democracy Project super PAC, spent more than $30 million against El-Sayed but failed to prevent his victory. El-Sayed now faces Republican Mike Rogers in the November general election for the US Senate.

The DSA’s wins reintensified debate within the Democratic Party over its political direction, though the left-wing movement’s momentum was not absolute. In Missouri, DSA member Cori Bush failed in her primary challenge against Rep. Wesley Bell, who had unseated her two years earlier. Hawaii Rep. Ed Case fended off state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, who had challenged him from the left on generational-change grounds. In Massachusetts, Rep. Seth Moulton mounted a generational-change challenge from the moderate side against Sen. Ed Markey; Markey won renomination. In Colorado, state Sen. Julie Gonzales lost a left-wing challenge to Sen. John Hickenlooper. In Washington, moderate Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won the Democratic nomination in her right-leaning district against several challengers.

Trump sought to play kingmaker in the Republican primaries, endorsing candidates who hewed to his agenda and working to oust those who had broken with him. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie lost his primary after Trump campaigned against him. Trump’s decision not to endorse Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw was likely a factor in Crenshaw’s loss of the Republican nomination. Trump successfully ousted Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict him after January 6, as well as Texas Sen. John Cornyn, though for what The Guardian described as comparatively murkier reasons. Recent polls have shown Democratic nominee James Talarico with a slight lead over Trump’s preferred candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Overall, a USA Today analysis found that nearly 97% of the candidates Trump backed in congressional and gubernatorial races won their primaries. Five gubernatorial candidates and four House aspirants won their primaries without Trump’s endorsement.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee entered the primaries at what The Guardian described as a particularly fraught moment for supporters of Israel. Surveys cited by the newspaper showed that some Republicans and many Democrats now hold negative views of Israel amid accusations it carried out a genocide in Gaza, and several of the left-wing candidates who ousted Democratic House incumbents did so after attacking their opponents’ AIPAC ties. Through its United Democracy Project super PAC, the group nonetheless scored some wins, including Ed Gallrein’s defeat of Massie in Kentucky, Adrian Boafo’s win in the Maryland primary to replace veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer, and Bell’s defense against Bush’s primary challenge in Missouri. But the group failed to keep El-Sayed from winning in Michigan, and progressive Aisha Wahab won a special election in California to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell.

Several candidates were derailed by scandals. Graham Platner won the Democratic primary to challenge veteran Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine but dropped out amid accusations of sexual assault and misconduct. Swalwell, who had run for governor of California, exited that race and resigned his House seat after he, too, was accused of sexual assault. North Carolina Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards won his primary but ended his re-election campaign after the House Ethics Committee said he likely broke rules against sexual harassment. Republican Rep. Max Miller remained in his race amid accusations of domestic violence from his ex-wife.

The GOP also used the primaries to dispose of problematic members of its own ranks. Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee, who had a history of homophobic and Islamophobic statements, lost after the state’s Republican governor endorsed his challenger and a super PAC backed by the renewable energy industry spent against him. Scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills was defeated in Florida after other Republican members of the state’s delegation endorsed his challenger.