Fishing sector projected to contract up to 33.9 percent
Peru’s climate scientific commission ENFEN has raised to 85% the probability that the country will face an “extraordinary” coastal El Niño between September and January, according to a technical report the commission issued Monday. The September figure rose 10 percentage points from the 75% projection ENFEN issued in late August. The update signals further deterioration of Peru’s climate outlook, with projections warning of severe effects on the fishing industry, agricultural output, and infrastructure through the Southern Hemisphere summer and into early 2027.
Monthly probabilities for an “extraordinary”-intensity event fall from 85% in September to 82% in October, 78% in November, 70% in December, and 59% in January. For February and March, the most likely scenario ranges between strong and extraordinary intensity, according to the commission. The conditions significantly increase the threat of torrential rains, widespread flooding, and severe damage to infrastructure along Peru’s coast.
ENFEN’s assessment, combined with projections from consulting firms and economic groups, points to severe consequences for Peru’s fishing and agricultural sectors under an extraordinary-intensity scenario. Extreme warming of surface waters is projected to reduce the availability of cold-water species, particularly anchoveta — the Peruvian anchovy that anchors the country’s fishmeal and fish oil industry. The fish are expected to migrate south or move into deeper waters in search of lower temperatures.
Economic projections estimate that Peru’s extractive fishing sector could contract between 22% and 33.9%, putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk and disrupting normal fishing seasons, the newspaper El Comercio reported. Warmer waters could also encourage the arrival of warm-water species, providing temporary relief for artisanal fishers but failing to offset losses in the industrial fishing sector.
Along Peru’s northern and central coasts, air temperatures expected to remain well above normal during the Southern Hemisphere spring could affect flowering and yields of key crops including blueberries, mangoes, avocados, and lemons. Agricultural output could fall by more than 6%, potentially pushing up prices for staple foods in 2027, according to reports by Infobae. The situation is expected to worsen beginning in November, when the arrival of torrential rains and flooding could destroy irrigation infrastructure and transportation routes. In contrast, Peru’s southern Andean highlands face a critical water deficit that threatens family farming and traditional livestock production.