Fraser Institute estimates Alberta’s net contribution to Ottawa at C$322bn since 2007
For Alberta independence supporter Keith Wilson, the western Canadian province is in a league of its own. Wilson said Alberta, with its wealth of oil and gas reserves, a significant agricultural sector, and a young and skilled workforce, has an economy “to be reckoned with.” “Alberta’s economy is unique. is fundamentally different than the rest of Canada’s - we have the people, the institutions, the infrastructure to excel,” he said.
Alberta’s economy is anchored by what are estimated to be the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves. Crude oil is by far Canada’s most profitable commodity, accounting for C$142bn in export value in 2025 alone — most of it sold to refineries in the United States. The province has the highest GDP per capita in the country and contributes billions a year to the federal tax pool because of its strong economy. Alberta has not received federal equalization payments — funds transferred to less wealthy provinces — since 1965.
Alberta separatists have long argued the province has been short-changed by being part of Canada, and that more of the oil and gas wealth would be kept within its borders instead of being shared with Ottawa, delivering it tens of billions in savings. Calculations by Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li, economists at the Fraser Institute think tank, show Alberta’s total net contribution to Ottawa since 2007 has been C$322bn, or an average of around C$17bn per year. “That’s nearly four times that of British Columbia, more than four times Ontario,” Hill told the BBC. “The other seven provinces were net recipients, meaning Ottawa spent or transferred more money to those provinces than it collected.”
Hill explains that the amount Alberta contributes to the rest of Canada is one of the main frustrations cited by those in favour of separation. The sentiment, she says, is that: “We’re paying to support these other provinces, and if we just went our own way, we could keep all that wealth for ourselves.”
But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who opposes independence, predicts a more sober outcome. She has said the province could risk paying C$400bn ($283bn; £213bn) in transition costs alone, while bleeding billions more in lost investments and trade due to the political upheaval. A report commissioned by her government, released earlier this month, calculated the costs of separation as between C$50bn and C$170bn over five years — and a “highly unpredictable outlook over the long term.”
The report cautions that the to-do list for a newly independent Alberta would be long and costly. An independent province would have to set up agencies to manage taxes and national security, develop its own constitution, legal and court systems, and pension plans, and negotiate the division of federal assets like national parks and military bases.
A report on Alberta independence by the CanadaWest Foundation, a non-profit Alberta-based think tank, estimates that the province could be stuck with additional debt ranging from C$258bn to C$333bn. Lennie Kaplan, a former finance official in Alberta, says the province would be expected to take on a share of Canada’s national debt, among many other fiscal challenges and responsibilities. With a projected hit to GDP and the additional transition costs, the CanadaWest report estimates separation could reduce Albertans’ disposable income by 5.8% on average.
“Why do we have to create all this uncertainty that might impact and impair the province’s fiscal position going forward? Why wouldn’t we just work within Canada to address these issues?” Kaplan asked.
The Alberta Prosperity Project, one of the main groups organizing in favour of independence, estimates Alberta would save up to C$47bn annually if it stops paying federal taxes. The group’s fiscal plan acknowledges that an independent Alberta’s costs would be higher because it would have to pay for things like national defence and international diplomacy, estimating those costs at up to C$31.6bn annually. This would be in addition to paying for things Alberta as a province already covers, like healthcare and education, which cost around C$75bn. After all its essentials and new expenses are paid for, the Alberta Prosperity Project estimates a surplus of C$24bn to C$46bn per year.
With that surplus, proponents argue, Alberta could lower taxes on individuals by more than C$10,000 a year, build out its infrastructure, or invest the surplus into the province’s wealth fund. But a number of economists argue the projections lack clarity and likely overestimate the windfall.
Hill, of the Fraser Institute, said one of the biggest drivers for economic decline is prolonged uncertainty, especially if the referendum does not put the issue to rest or if it ends up in a lengthy divorce from Canada. “If someone doesn’t know if Alberta is going to be a part of Canada or if it’s going to go on its own way in the next couple years, in what world are they going to be putting their money in the province?” she asked.
Prime Minister Mark Carney often points to Brexit — the vote to separate Britain from the European Union — as a cautionary tale for Alberta. The UK economy has taken a 6% hit from the effects of Brexit, according to a report published earlier this year. If Alberta’s economy suffered a similar fate, it could shrink by C$62bn annually and the workforce by 175,000, according to a projection by Calgary-based economist Trevor Tombe.
Wilson dismissed that comparison, arguing the “fundamental dynamics are completely different.” He said some of the projections by the stay side are “doom and gloom,” joking that the only possible negative they failed to include is “a large asteroid hitting Canada.” “We’re a resource economy. We have leverage. We have products the world wants. That’s why investment comes here, despite the constraints imposed by Ottawa,” he said.
Once a fringe movement, a number of factors have pushed Alberta separatism to the forefront of provincial politics. There was anger over environmental and political pushback that killed proposed pipelines from landlocked Alberta to coastal waters. A decade of Liberal government in Ottawa has also caused frustration in reliably conservative Alberta. And there is leftover distrust of the federal government over what some Albertans saw as excessive lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the past year, separatist organizers held townhalls across the province to gauge public interest and launched a citizen-led petition that gathered more than 300,000 signatures. Smith, the premier, decided earlier this year she would authorize a vote.
The result on October 19 will not be a final word on independence. But it will signal whether Albertans want to take the question to a second, binding vote — and how deep the province’s longstanding sense of “western alienation” still runs.