Forecasters expect Isaias to reach Category 2 with 110 mph winds Friday
Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said, and is forecast to become the Atlantic basin’s first hurricane of 2026 within days. As of the hurricane center’s 4 a.m. CDT update Wednesday, the storm was about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, moving east-northeast at nearly 8 mph. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, but the hurricane center said hurricane watches will likely be required for parts of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast later Wednesday.
The hurricane center projects that Isaias will reach Category 1 strength on Thursday and intensify further to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, with sustained winds of 110 mph. Through the weekend, the storm is expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain across the northern Gulf Coast, extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with localized totals reaching 10 inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast, extending as far north as the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and the Carolinas, according to the hurricane center. Flash, urban, and river flooding are all possible across the affected regions.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties on Tuesday, telling residents to prepare their disaster plans and stock hurricane supply kits, according to CNN. State emergency teams are preparing generators, fuel, food, water, and flood barriers in Tallahassee, Santa Rosa, and surrounding areas, UPI reported.
Oil companies operating in the Gulf began their own preparations. Shell and BP are evacuating nonessential personnel from offshore platforms, CNN reported.
Heavy rain could also reach the Ohio Valley, extending as far north as Kentucky and West Virginia, before moving into the Carolinas and southern Virginia, according to USA Today.
The storm’s potential emergence as a hurricane comes against a backdrop of suppressed Atlantic tropical activity so far this season. Wind shear in the Atlantic has kept hurricanes from forming, and a strong El Niño is contributing to the quiet season. Conditions in the Gulf differ: low wind shear over open water is allowing Isaias to intensify, but forecasters say higher wind shear closer to the Gulf states could break the storm up before any landfall.