Gulf depression forecast to become first Atlantic hurricane of 2026

Latest first hurricane since 1905; Gulf landfall possible Saturday

The National Hurricane Center expects a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico to strengthen into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane by Thursday, a development that would mark the latest first hurricane in more than a century. The system, identified as Tropical Depression Nine, was located Tuesday afternoon about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the NHC.

The NHC projects the depression will become a tropical storm by Wednesday and potentially a hurricane on Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. If it reaches hurricane strength, the storm would be the first of the 2026 Atlantic season. The first hurricane of the season has not formed this late since 8 October 1905, the Associated Press reported.

AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva described the system’s expected path. “Our forecast track has the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening, until the end of the week when it approaches the central Gulf coast, at which point it should start to lose wind intensity,” DaSilva said. AccuWeather said the storm is expected to turn northeast and approach the central Gulf coast late this week, with a possible US landfall early Saturday. The most likely area stretches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

The system is expected to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain across parts of the central US from Friday through the weekend, with some areas potentially receiving as much as 10 inches, according to the NHC. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, are also possible. Strong winds, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected as well. If the system reaches hurricane strength, gusts of 60 to 80 mph could occur near the center, with stronger gusts possible, AccuWeather reported.

In a separate development, heavy rainfall from a tropical wave has already triggered flooding and landslides in St Vincent and the Grenadines, where schools were closed on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.

The current, extremely strong El Niño climate pattern is a factor in the quieter Atlantic hurricane season. While it warms sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and has fueled greater storm activity there, it also increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which can reduce the likelihood that tropical storms grow into hurricanes.