Four of eight participants still plan to vote Republican this fall
The virtual focus group was conducted last week by Navigator Research, a polling firm described by NPR as left-leaning. Participants ranged in age from 20 to 29 and agreed to be identified only by their first names. They came from Florida, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina — places Trump carried by double digits two years ago. Two of those states, Texas and Ohio, are home to competitive Senate races that could determine control of the chamber.
When asked to grade Trump’s performance, six of eight participants gave him a D or F, while two selected C. John, a 29-year-old Black man from Florida who identifies as a Republican and has voted for Trump since 2016, gave the president an F.
“I just feel like nothing went correctly. I just feel like everything got worse,” John said. He said he now plans to support Democratic candidates this fall, in large part because of the strain he has felt from rising costs.
“I’m willing to give the other side a chance,” he added. “I don’t think they’re going to make a total change. But things are just horrible right now for me. So I feel like even if they make one or two small changes, it will probably benefit me.”
While the focus group is not a nationally representative survey, its findings echoed Navigator’s broader polling released in August. That polling found that nearly a third of Gen Z voters — those under age 30 — regret voting for Trump, a higher share than among older generations.
Trump’s rising unpopularity among young voters is not happening in a vacuum. He has also lost ground with other key groups that shifted right in 2024, notably independents and Latino voters. In a year when the Republican Party is facing political headwinds, it is unclear whether the expanded coalition from two years ago can show up at the same strength now.
Despite the disappointment expressed by some participants, four of the eight focus group members said they would still vote Republican this fall. Three said they planned to vote for Democrats, and one participant said she was still deciding.
Matthew, a 25-year-old Black man living in Texas, said he did not regret his support for the president and gave him a C grade. “I feel like he’s done a really good job closing the border,” Matthew said. “I also do appreciate his efforts in trying to end some of the conflicts that began under the last administration, besides the fact that the Iran conflict hasn’t really worked the best, from my perspective.”
Matthew said he planned to vote in the midterm elections and argued that Trump would be able to carry out more of his agenda if Republicans could secure larger majorities in both the House and Senate — although national polls indicate the GOP is more likely to lose seats.
Courtney, a 20-year-old white woman based in South Carolina, said she did not regret her vote for Trump and overall aligns with Republicans. But she said she has grown more distrustful of both major parties, particularly on foreign policy.
“I just really do feel like we would be in this situation either way. … Education, the economy, everything else would be so much better if we weren’t pumping money out into other countries that aren’t ours,” Courtney said, referring to U.S. aid for Israel and the decision to go to war with Iran.
“I don’t think it matters what side you vote on — that’s why I voted red, because I agree with those policies more — but at the end of the day, what we do in the Middle East is going to be not at all up to [the] party [in power],” she said.
That sense of political disaffection may underscore a growing challenge for both Republicans and Democrats moving forward as they try to repair ties with the generation.
Melissa Toufanian, the managing director at Navigator, said the regret voiced by some Trump voters does not translate cleanly into Democratic gains. “As we see people regret their vote for Trump, sour on the Republican Party and Republican policies, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re swinging right over to Democrats,” she said.
Toufanian pointed to Navigator’s own polling, which has found that even as the GOP has lost trust on economic issues, “it’s not a one-for-one with Democrats gaining that trust.”
“A lot of people are moving to this middle, this category that ‘I don’t trust either party,’” she said. “We are seeing people who are becoming increasingly pessimistic about our political parties and our political system, and they’re not feeling strongly that either party can really deliver for them.”