In the reviewed TikTok sample, videos disputing Trump’s economic claims outnumber supporters 16 to one
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has spent the closing weeks of the midterm campaign insisting the economy is booming on his watch, but a Wall Street Journal analysis finds his message drawing more criticism than support almost everywhere else — across thousands of TikTok videos, conservative podcast episodes, cable-news segments and television ads running in the most competitive congressional races — though the podcast and cable results varied by claim and channel. On the slice of TikTok the Journal reviewed, videos disputing his economic claims outnumbered supportive ones by about 16 to one.
The president’s message has been consistent. At a rally in Bullhead City, Ariz., last week, Trump told the crowd, “You’re making more money per individual than at any time in the history of our country.” That was at least the 84th time since mid-July that C-Span broadcast him discussing the economy, the Journal found.
The Journal examined more than 20,000 TikTok videos posted since late June that mentioned Trump and the economy. About 6,250 of them substantively discussed at least one of nine economic claims he often repeats in speeches. The analysis did not cover all of TikTok or other platforms, though polling and advertising data suggest the disapproval in the reviewed videos reaches beyond the clips.
TikTok has become a regular news source for many U.S. adults. Among Americans age 18 to 29, around four in 10 say they regularly get their news there, according to the Pew Research Center. That makes the platform an early read on how political messages are spreading among a key subset of the electorate. The analysis was reported by data reporter Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky and Washington bureau reporter Jack Gillum.
Gas prices were the most common subject, accounting for more than a third of those videos, and most of them disputed him. Nationally, gasoline now averages about $4.27 a gallon, the Journal said. Since August, Trump has also promised that energy prices will fall “very rapidly” once the war with Iran ends.
His claim that tariffs bring in money paid by other countries fared worse still. Among 1,081 TikTok videos addressing that claim, only 31 echoed or defended it. His pledge of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress drew nearly nine times as much criticism as support.
The claim that prices are coming down was the worst received of the nine the Journal tracked: just 58 of 2,810 videos were positive.
The pattern carries into paid advertising. In the 54 most competitive House and Senate races, only one Republican television advertisement about the economy mentioned Trump, according to AdImpact data cited by the Journal. Democratic economy ads name him in about one in five spots.
Some Republican ads acknowledge the strain without making the president the target. An ad from Ken Paxton, the Texas Republican running for Senate, says, “groceries, rent, insurance, it all keeps climbing,” while blaming “liberal politicians” for making it worse. Democrats’ economic ads are mostly about affordability and gas prices; a $4 million ad from Democratic-aligned WinSenate attacking Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, lists “Trump’s tariffs that are costing us all” among the policies Rogers has cheered.
The analysis turned up one relative bright spot for Trump: his claim that new factory investment is creating jobs, which drew the least criticism of the nine claims on TikTok. It is also the only major economic theme on which Republicans outspend Democrats on television ads, $66.7 million to $42.0 million. Conservative podcast hosts embraced it too, with 88% of their discussions of the claim supportive.
On podcasts, some Trump-friendly voices have cooled. From late June to mid-July, hosts on 124 conservative shows reviewed by the Journal backed Trump’s claims of falling gas and consumer prices by a margin of about two to one. Over the past four weeks, those shows have split evenly, with criticism edging ahead. Across all nine claims, the ratio of supportive to critical episodes fell from about 2.8 to 1 to about 1.7 to 1. Hosts still overwhelmingly back his boasts on tax cuts, drug prices and job-creating investment, but on prices and gas, episodes are roughly split between support and criticism. An earlier Journal analysis found that conservative podcasters were talking less about Trump overall in the run-up to the midterms.
On cable, the verdict depends on the channel. Among 634 MS NOW segments about his claims, none was supportive. CNN’s coverage ran about nine to one against, while Fox News segments backed his claims about three times as often as they disputed them.
A recent Journal poll points in the same direction within one subgroup: half of white voters without a college degree — a bloc that helped propel Trump to a second term — say his economic policies made the economy worse, while only 28% say they made it better. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, accelerating from 3.4% in August, the Labor Department said this month.
A White House spokesman disputed the findings, saying: “Stories like this one prove that reporters would rather doomscroll social media than report on the progress President Trump has made to fix the economic mess that Joe Biden left behind.”
The political stakes are concrete. Republicans are defending a slim House majority and a 53-47 Senate edge, and a modest swing could hand Democrats one or both chambers, along with subpoena power and the ability to stall the president’s agenda. Republicans in the closest races, the Journal found, are talking less about the president.
In early September, President Donald Trump told vulnerable Republican lawmakers facing tough reelection campaigns to run on his White House record, and the Journal’s advertising analysis shows how far the campaign has moved from that instruction: of the 54 closest House and Senate races, only one Republican advertisement about the economy mentioned him. As MSI previously reported, Trump urged his party to run on his record and pledged to campaign for them.