The 2024 results leave Obama’s influence on Democratic turnout unresolved
Barack Obama’s Oct. 28, 2024 appearance at a major rally in Philadelphia with Bruce Springsteen and John Legend was intended to turn out Democratic votes. Eight days later, Kamala Harris lost Pennsylvania to Donald Trump by about 120,000 votes, and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey lost his seat to David McCormick by roughly 15,000 votes, according to Damian Paletta’s report in The Wall Street Journal. Paletta also reported that Obama campaigned with Senate candidates Ruben Gallego in Arizona, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, who won despite Trump’s momentum that year.
The outcomes did not support a single verdict on Obama’s electoral influence. Paletta cautioned that Obama was not the reason Harris lost in 2024 and said Democrats did not have a deep bench of stars to put on the campaign trail. He also asked whether Obama still had the appeal and still resonated with a new generation of voters who felt burned by politicians.
Paletta did not dispute Obama’s ability to draw a large crowd. He wrote, “Yes, Obama can pack a house, but can he tip the scales?” The Philadelphia rally and the mixed Senate results framed that question as Obama returned to the campaign trail.
On Saturday, Obama tried to rally voters in Michigan and Ohio. His remarks combined what Paletta described as his usual lofty rhetoric with sarcasm, including zingers aimed at Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Obama asked, “How much time do you think this defense secretary spends looking at himself in the mirror in the morning?”
Paletta also noted that Obama’s Cheesecake Factory line about Trump and the White House had drawn laughs and gone viral. He asked whether the line still worked and whether Obama could resonate with a new generation of voters who felt burned by politicians.
A broader shift in Democratic politics framed Paletta’s questions about Obama’s appeal. During the previous 18 months, several Democrats in Congress began turning on former President Bill Clinton, refusing to back him over questions about the Epstein files. Paletta wrote that the lockstep party loyalty long associated with the Democratic brand, and which former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had helped enforce, is fading.
Other newsletter items placed those questions in the broader midterm campaign. Trump was scheduled to participate in several policy meetings starting at 11 a.m. ET Monday and later to travel to Corinth, Miss., for a midterm elections rally.
Wall Street Journal reporters who attended Trump’s midterm rallies the prior week said the events free him from the pressures of the job, critical news coverage and low approval ratings. They found the rallies advanced his strategy of motivating Republican voters and said Trump punctuated his speeches with a steady drip of “sometimes bizarre, occasionally candid and often comedic” comments. The reporters also noted increasingly visible protesters and abundant MAGA merchandise.
Attorney General Todd Blanche offered what the newsletter described as a combative defense of the Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska’s Senate race if the Republican candidate loses. On CNN’s “State of the Union,” Blanche alleged that a second Dan Sullivan had been purposely added to the ballot to siphon votes from GOP incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. Blanche said the suit was intended to prevent voters from being confused by the second candidate.
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority also supplied election-law context. Paletta said several decisions by the court had rewritten rules governing American elections. He added, “Perhaps the court’s most visible impact is on TV airwaves in battleground states.” Until 2026, federal law capped how much money the parties could spend in direct coordination with candidates; the court declared those caps unconstitutional under the First Amendment.
The newsletter’s remaining briefs said the Federal Reserve was expected to hold interest rates steady that week.
It also reported that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado had returned to Venezuela, potentially complicating the Trump administration’s efforts to manage a gradual political transition.
The 2024 record remained mixed as Obama took the campaign trail again. Paletta affirmed that Obama could pack a house but asked whether he could tip the scales; the Philadelphia rally preceded two Pennsylvania losses, while Gallego, Slotkin and Baldwin won after campaigning with him. His Michigan and Ohio appearances carried that unresolved question into the current midterm campaign.