Ohio early-voting indicators point to higher Democratic participation

Defiance County had more Democratic-affiliated than Republican early ballots by Oct. 13

Democratic-affiliated voters had returned more early ballots than Republican-affiliated voters in rural Defiance County by Oct. 13, despite Donald Trump winning 69% of the vote there in 2024, according to the Ohio secretary of state’s data portal. Defiance County had the state’s highest ballot-return rate at 19% that day, which The Guardian said suggested a high level of motivation. Separately, The Guardian reported that early-voting indicators in Ohio suggest participation among Democratic-affiliated voters was higher than in 2024, especially in predominantly Republican districts.

A photograph published with The Guardian’s report showed Kim McCarthy, a Democratic candidate in Ohio House District 70, canvassing in Ohio in the previous month. She canvassed a middle-class Ohio neighborhood where four-bedroom, three-bathroom homes had $70,000 trucks in the driveways and robot lawnmowers at work. She described the area to The Guardian: “This is a neighborhood of two incomes and young families; people working hard.”

McCarthy’s district includes Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, which The Guardian identified as Ohio’s largest single-site employer. Federal workforce cuts have hit civilian contractors and employees at the base hard, and rising mortgage interest rates and wider affordability concerns are top of mind for many residents. Her opponent, three-time Republican incumbent Brian Lampton, beat her by 15 points in a previous election; Trump won 60% in Fairborn in the presidential election two years ago.

After knocking on thousands of Greene County doors, McCarthy said residents were telling her they planned to vote Democratic down the ballot for the first time. McCarthy said one woman who had worked in the military and recently retired told her, “Oh my God, I can’t afford anything.”

In October 2026, candidates from both parties running for office were invited to a forum held by the conservative Greene County Tea Party, which McCarthy attended. McCarthy recalled, “It was basically empty.” When a Guardian reporter accompanied her, only two residents opened their doors. One said she and her husband had already voted Democratic down the ballot; the other thanked McCarthy and said they would look into her policies.

For more than a decade, Ohio had been considered a firm Republican stronghold, but The Guardian reported that signs of discontent with the status quo were appearing after 20 months of Trump administration policies. The Guardian said the signs could be critical for Democrats at every level of the ballot as the party tries to reclaim a U.S. Senate seat, the governor’s mansion and competitive House seats around the state.

The Guardian reported that Ohio had grown older and whiter for decades and had been won by Trump in the last three presidential elections. The outlet said the odds were stacked against Democrats.

Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, cautioned that a possible surge among Democrats could reflect postal-system concerns rather than a final vote choice. “I suspect any surge we may be seeing among Democrats could be due to concerns they may have about the USPS given the negative signaling by Donald Trump about the sanctity of mail-in votes,” he said. Alexander added: “Many have grown untrustworthy of the administration and would prefer to cast their ballots in person rather than take any risks sending it through the post office.” Pollsters cited by The Guardian also warned that the early-voting surge might not indicate that more Ohioans would vote for Democrats by the end of the election.

The Guardian reported that Brown’s race against Republican Jon Husted was seen as central to Democratic hopes of taking control of the Senate, and polls put the pair neck and neck.

In Defiance County, Rebecca Kirkland of the Defiance County Democratic Party said, “The number one issue in Defiance right now is the proposed datacenter. There is a local investor who is entertaining the idea of selling property to a datacenter investor.” Trump has repeatedly encouraged communities to accept data centers, telling supporters at a campaign rally outside Dayton on Oct. 3, “We want them,” according to The Guardian. The outlet also reported broad bipartisan opposition to the projects.

The Guardian reported that Defiance County had been hit hard by the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada. The county is home to a General Motors powertrain foundry that employs more than 500 people. Among the plant’s main customers is the GM-owned St Catharines engine plant in Ontario, and engine parts built in Defiance are shipped across the Canadian border for assembly.

Kirkland said, “There aren’t many high-paying jobs available in this area. We see posts on community Facebook pages of people looking for assistance finding work, housing or financial assistance.”

The Guardian also reported criticism of the Ohio Democratic Party’s lack of financial support for candidates in districts that, until this year, were not viewed as easily winnable. McCarthy, who chairs the Ohio Democratic Progressive Caucus, said, “We’ve seen what happens when we don’t invest in these red areas,” and added, “We have to stop letting people run in these areas without any financial support.”

The Guardian reported that McCarthy was counting on dissatisfaction with Republican leaders to help her win. On the campaign trail, she did not mention that she was a Democrat; the word appeared only once, near the bottom of the back page of her flyer. At one of her meetings, she said, “We have registered Republicans showing up at our meetings for the first time tonight,” adding, “They are disgusted at the corruption.”

The Ohio secretary of state’s data portal showed that Democratic-affiliated voters in rural Defiance County had returned more early ballots than Republican-affiliated voters as of Oct. 13. The Guardian reported that early-voting indicators in Ohio suggest higher participation among Democratic-affiliated voters than in 2024, especially in predominantly Republican districts. Candidate accounts in Greene and Defiance counties raised concerns about jobs, housing and data centers, while The Guardian separately reported on federal workforce cuts affecting civilian contractors and employees at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and on Defiance County’s exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada. The evidence did not yet show how those voters would vote in every race, and pollsters warned that early participation might not translate into Democratic votes. Democrats were nevertheless competing for the Senate, the governor’s office and House seats in a state Trump won in the last three presidential elections.