Trump puts his political brand at the center of the 2026 midterms

Low approval ratings threaten Republican control of Congress

The mechanics of the rally blitz

President Donald Trump is wrapping up the 2026 midterm campaign with a cross-country blitz of campaign rallies, and his instruction to supporters is direct: “Just close your eyes,” he tells them, “and pretend I’m on the ballot.” The Associated Press described the appeal as typical of a president who has been the center of the nation’s political gravity for more than a decade, and said the rallies allow him to “bask in applause when he’s otherwise profoundly unpopular.”

The mechanics are deliberate. The AP reported that the idea is to energize the Republican base while avoiding backlash in swing states, and also potentially reaching television viewers who see the adulation for Trump and may vote Republican elsewhere around the country. The Associated Press noted that Trump’s “rally whirlwind has kept him on friendly turf.” Even while traveling across the country, Trump has generally remained in reliably Republican states, and when he goes to battlegrounds he mostly visits conservative areas, where crowds are especially likely to be sympathetic.

A pre-speech video likens the president to a global savior, booming repeatedly, “God gave us Trump,” and he usually spends more of his speeches repeating past grievances than talking about next week’s Election Day. Asked by the Washington Examiner whether he was focusing too much on sympathetic rallygoers rather than wooing independents, Trump said, “I always cater to my base.”

The Associated Press reported that Trump thinks the way to win elections is “more Trump.” That approach extends well beyond the rally schedule. Trump organized even small details of the first-ever Republican midterm convention last month in Dallas, speaking both nights, and was depicted there as the Marlboro Man — a cowboy on horseback and with a white Stetson — on everything from baseball caps to beer cozies. Trump also put a personal spin on what the AP described as his attempt to win over voters by pledging big checks if Republicans hold Congress, saying “I’ll give you $5,000” even though the idea would likely need lawmaker approval.

Political groups associated with the president have spent at least around $277 million since Sept. 1 to help Republicans, a sum that did not completely drain the $416 million that Trump’s flagship Super PAC, MAGA Inc., had in the bank to start last month. Trump also used taxpayer funding to run television ads celebrating himself, including one nearly identical to a 2024 spot — the last time he really was on the ballot.

The same pattern runs through his governing style. The Associated Press wrote that “It’s consistent with a self-centered, second-term approach,” adding: “From expanding executive power, to turning the presidency into a profit center for his family, to molding the White House in his own gilded image, Trump’s self regard has escalated since he won back the White House.” Trump bragged at a rally in Kentucky, “I can do stuff that is unbelievable.”

He crammed the Oval Office with gold flourishes, demolished the East Wing to build a sprawling ballroom and converted the Rose Garden into a patio space reminiscent of his Mar-a-Lago estate. There is also a new helipad that he showed off to Xi Jinping, China’s communist leader, during a recent visit. Trump has focused on reshaping Washington as well, dispatching National Guard troops to the streets, closing the Kennedy Center after failed attempts to add his name to the building, planning a towering arch just outside the city and pushing to revamp a century-old public golf course.

The strategy also draws fire from the group that focuses on electing Democratic women who support abortion rights. “I don’t think there’s anybody that wants Donald Trump out there at these rallies more than Democratic candidates,” said Jessica Mackler, president of EMILY’s List. She said every time there is another Trump event, “we look at that as a win.”

The White House presents a different case. Spokesperson Davis Ingle said Trump is “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” Ingle said, “The choice has never been more clear,” and framed the election as a choice between doubling down on Trump’s agenda and “the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.”

Polling and the 2018 precedent

The Associated Press reported that Republicans “still love the president, who remains dominant even as he approaches the back half of his second term.” But his approval ratings are “low enough to potentially sink his party and its bid to maintain control of Congress.”

Just 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, as the Iran war keeps fuel prices high and stokes inflation fears, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted in late September. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted in mid-October found that about 4 in 10 registered voters suggested they would think of their vote for Congress as more about sending a message that they oppose Trump. Only about 2 in 10 said they would be sending a message supporting him.

The Associated Press described Trump as “the dividing line” in the midterms. Longtime Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said Trump’s decision to focus on himself has prevented Republicans from courting conservative voters disappointed in the president. “He’s literally driving people who disagree with him to the Democratic side,” Czuba said. “The dividing line is how voters feel about Donald Trump,” he added. “And there’s a whole lot more voters who disapprove of Donald Trump than approve of Donald Trump.”

The White House points to highlights beyond Trump’s personal appeal, the Associated Press reported, “like efforts to lower prescription drug prices, stimulate domestic manufacturing, crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border and oppose transgender rights.”

The Associated Press wrote that “the Trump-centric approach backfired during his first term in 2018, when a similar presidential rally barrage didn’t stop Democrats from retaking House control.” This time, many of the issues that helped Trump win reelection in 2024, such as his handling of the economy, could prove to be liabilities for Republicans.

The midterms are unfolding in a year marked by the war with Iran, fears about artificial intelligence, redistricting fights, high energy prices and increasing concerns about the cost of living. The Associated Press wrote that “Trump’s deeply personal approach might be the election cycle’s biggest gamble.”

Candidates and voters

Trump’s interventions have reshaped Republican candidacies, and the AP said his “iron grip” on the party could hurt its chances in some races. He helped Ken Paxton, whom the AP described as having “a history of legal and ethical problems,” defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas primary, making the general-election campaign against Democrat James Talarico more competitive. Trump also clashed with North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis, prompting him to retire, and pushed Michael Whatley to run. Republicans are bracing to lose that seat to former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

Trump’s endorsement can be enough for some. Cindy Downes, a 67-year-old retiree from North Liberty, Iowa, cast an early ballot for Rep. Ashley Hinson for U.S. Senate and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ reelection. Wearing a MAGA hat at a recent campaign event, Downes said, “The number one reason: POTUS supports them.” She added, “I trust him. I trust his judgment.”

Opposition also supplies a campaign benefit for Democrats. LuAnn Bird, 72, of Hales Corners, Wisconsin, said opposing Trump was one of many reasons she is supporting Democrats. She attended a Milwaukee rally where former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appeared with the Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. “It just feels so good, not just to go against Trump, but to go for something,” Bird said. “I want to see an aggressive, progressive agenda.”

Mackler of EMILY’s List recently spent time in states Trump has visited, including Georgia, Florida and Ohio. She said the president’s approach exposes a disconnect with voters who are “so frustrated and fed up with this agenda that’s making their lives worse.” “That’s what’s driving opportunity on the ballot,” she said, “including in states and races and places that we would not have imagined would be in play.”

The result will turn on whether Trump can convert loyalty among his base without making opposition to him the stronger organizing principle. The rallies are intended to energize Republican voters, while the same polls and candidate fights have left the party’s congressional outcome unsettled.

Associated Press writers Scott Bauer in Milwaukee, Hannah Fingerhut in Coralville, Iowa, and Amelia Thomson DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.