Hundreds of millions in ads underscore Iowa’s emergence as a battleground
Republican Ashley Hinson launched her Senate campaign last year promising to be Donald Trump’s “top ally.” Almost a year later, she had shifted her message to being “Iowa’s best bipartisan fighter.” Hinson was one of several Republicans who sharpened that message in the final months of the campaign, especially as the war in Iran dragged on and gasoline and diesel prices rose. In September, after House members had gone home, she said Iowans “shouldn’t have to foot the bill” for the war.
Hinson did not join fellow Iowa Republicans Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, both from battleground districts, in voting with Democrats earlier in September on a resolution intended to halt Trump’s ability to continue military action without lawmakers’ approval. Hinson said the resolution was not the way to allow Trump to bring the war to an immediate and successful end.
Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are running to replace retiring two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa’s rare open U.S. Senate seat. The race will help determine control of the chamber in Tuesday’s midterm elections, and the campaign has drawn hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising.
Democrats are seeking votes from Iowans frustrated by rising prices, the Iran war and tariffs that have caused turmoil in the state’s dominant agricultural industry.
Libertarian Thomas Laehn is also on the ballot and could complicate Hinson’s effort by winning votes from some conservative voters.
State Auditor Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, is running against Republican candidate Zach Lahn.
Iowa had been reliably Republican since President Barack Obama won the state in his 2012 reelection campaign, but it reemerged as a political battleground this year as President Donald Trump’s popularity waned in his second term. The retirements of Ernst and Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds made for the first cycle without incumbents seeking the state’s top-of-the-ticket seats since 1968, breathing new life into Democrats’ efforts to reverse years of electoral failure.
Democrats are eager to revive Iowa’s bipartisan tradition. For three decades, Iowans sent a bipartisan pair to the Senate, including Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley and Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. Ernst won Harkin’s seat after Harkin decided not to seek reelection in 2014. Turek, a two-term state representative and former Paralympian, wants to follow Harkin’s path.
Born with spina bifida, believed to be the result of his father’s exposure to chemicals during the Vietnam War, Turek credits Harkin’s work to enact the Americans with Disabilities Act for his own achievements.
Hinson is serving her third term in the U.S. House. She had been a state representative after working as a news anchor for a local broadcast station in northeast Iowa. Trump and Republican leaders quickly endorsed Hinson when she launched her bid on the same day Ernst announced her retirement, and Obama endorsed Turek after his primary win.
During the broader election cycle, Iowa Democrats invested in an expansive and well-financed ground game to counter Republicans’ advantages and appeal directly to a frustrated electorate. Even with a challenging midterm environment for Republicans, Democrats faced a significant statewide voter-registration disadvantage as the electorate increasingly voted red in recent years. Republicans almost entirely control state government and exclusively make up Iowa’s federal delegation.
Republican-aligned groups poured money into Iowa in the final weeks of the election to help Hinson. The White House also kept its attention on the state, with visits from the president, vice president and Cabinet officials throughout the campaign.