Iowa races tighten as energy costs fuel Democratic midterm hopes

Iowa GOP incumbents break with Trump on Iran war as energy costs rise

Iowa’s November elections, usually a quiet follow-up to the state’s presidential caucuses, are showing razor-thin margins in the governor’s race and a U.S. Senate contest, according to polls reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The shift reflects rising energy prices hitting Iowa harder than most states because of the state’s reliance on agriculture and ethanol, Damian Paletta, the Journal’s Washington coverage chief, reported Thursday in the publication’s daily Politics newsletter.

Iowa voters will choose a governor and one U.S. Senate seat this fall. Republicans have held the governor’s office since 2011 and both of Iowa’s U.S. Senate seats since 2015, making the current competitive landscape unusual. The margins in both races are “looking razor thin,” Paletta wrote.

In the Senate contest, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are locked in a tight duel, Paletta reported. In the governor’s race, Republican Zach Lahn appears to be slightly trailing Democrat Rob Sand.

Paletta said rising energy prices affect everyone but tend to hit Iowa harder because agriculture and ethanol are central to many livelihoods in the state. Energy prices are higher in part because of the Iran war, Paletta reported, and vulnerable Iowa GOP incumbents have broken with President Trump on the war, reflecting that dynamic. The newsletter did not identify which incumbents had broken with Trump or specify the nature of the break.

The Journal framed the Iowa contests as a potential signal for 2026 and 2028. If the races are closer than in years past, or if Democrats break through, that could tell a lot about the national political mood heading into the 2028 presidential race, Paletta wrote. If Republicans hold the Senate seat and governorship, he added, GOP candidates may have positioned themselves to avoid broader national crosscurrents.

The newsletter’s other items offered additional context on the political and economic landscape. A separate section noted that most voters don’t know the inflation rate is 3.4%, but they do care that coffee prices have more than doubled and beef prices are up 50% over the past five years. The “sticky psychology of prices” means few voters have mentally adjusted to a world where the per-pound price of chicken starts with a 2 rather than a 1, according to the newsletter.

Separately, the newsletter reported that the U.S. ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, pushed a MAGA donor to wire money to her American Express account. According to the report, Guilfoyle had offered Eric Deters, a former congressional candidate in Kentucky, access to top administration officials ahead of her confirmation as ambassador. Deters did not ultimately make the $100,000 payment, but the exchange “raises new questions about the activities of one of America’s most high-profile ambassadors,” the Journal reported.

The newsletter also noted that Michigan Senate candidates — Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed — were scheduled to hold their first debate Thursday evening. Separately, it reported that Dr. Erica Schwartz, the CDC’s new director, aims to change a culture of “paternalism” at the agency as she faces a number of challenges in her first months. The newsletter also flagged that the president’s Thursday schedule had not been released as of the time of publication.

The newsletter additionally reported that lawmakers are circulating a bipartisan proposal to require written pledges from colleagues to accept midterm election results, an effort Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans are pushing to take the tactic off the table amid concerns the current GOP-controlled Congress could thwart the seating of Democrats in January.