Paxton's legal history and Musk's money shape pivotal Texas Senate race

Paxton courts the GOP base as Talarico seeks moderate Republicans and independents

Tuesday’s two tests. Ken Paxton and James Talarico head into Tuesday’s Texas Senate vote with Democrats pushing to break a 30-year losing streak in statewide elections and Republicans scrambling to defend both a pivotal stronghold and an increasingly fragile Senate majority. AP described the showdown as one of the marquee U.S. Senate races of the midterms and one of the nation’s most heated and expensive campaigns. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and AP said Republicans fear they could lose.

What each candidate must prove. AP said the campaign tested voters’ tolerance for past scandals that have shadowed Paxton and whether Talarico’s religious and populist message could open a path for Democrats in a state President Donald Trump easily carried two years ago. Paxton’s strategic challenge is mobilizing Republican voters, while Talarico must attract moderate Republicans and independents put off by Paxton while answering questions about his own past comments.

AP said a unique cascade of events had set the stage for the race: Paxton’s defeat of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary with help from a late endorsement from Trump; public frustration over high costs and the war with Iran; and Elon Musk’s emergence as a major donor. Senate Republican leaders feared Paxton would be far more vulnerable than Cornyn because of years of legal troubles, including corruption accusations.

Talarico’s case with voters. Talarico centered his campaign on portraying Paxton as the face of a corrupt political system that allows billionaires to wield outsized political power while prices rise for the rest of the country. He also tried to woo moderate Republicans and independents put off by Paxton. AP said the political climate was favorable for Democrats from coast to coast this year, with many people upset with Trump over issues such as the war with Iran and soaring costs of living. In Texas, voters have become increasingly frustrated over high prices for gas, groceries, healthcare and more, sapping Trump’s and Republicans’ popularity.

Paxton’s case with voters. Paxton pinned his hopes on firing up Republican voters, who have historically outnumbered Democrats in Texas, and turning them out at the polls. He campaigned with Trump several times, and the president amplified Paxton’s attack that Talarico was too progressive for the Lone Star State by citing past statements, including Talarico’s statement that God is “nonbinary.” Although Paxton discussed rising costs, he focused more on framing Talarico as too far left for Texas.

Religion and gender. AP noted that Paxton was considered a culture-war pugilist in some conservative circles. He pointed to Talarico naming his favorite drag queen in Texas and to the Democrat’s previous statement that there were six sexes. Talarico worked to moderate his past statements on gender questions, calling them “cringey.” He said he opposes transgender athletes playing women’s sports if it “endangers safety or fairness.” In campaign appearances, Talarico often took a pastoral approach, presenting himself as an earnest listener and pledging to address voters’ concerns if elected.

Together, the candidates’ appeals brought three pressure points into focus: Paxton’s legal and ethical record, Musk’s money and advertising, and Paxton’s history as attorney general.

Paxton’s legal and ethical record. Paxton carried a string of legal and ethical problems into the race. He was impeached in 2023 and then acquitted by his own party on corruption accusations. A federal corruption investigation closed with no charges. During the impeachment trial, allegations of marital infidelity surfaced, and Paxton’s wife is now divorcing him on “biblical grounds.” Talarico pressed that ethical record in an attempt to win over Republican and independent voters while rarely maligning the Republican Party.

Musk’s money. Elon Musk, whom AP described as the world’s richest man and a Texas resident, became a major donor. He contributed a total of $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which then gave the same amount to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton’s campaign. Musk also gave $10 million to the Paxton-supporting Lone Star Liberty PAC.

Advertising and moneyed influence. AP said Talarico’s argument gained momentum after Musk became a major donor in the race. The spending helped blanket Texas in anti-Talarico advertisements. Talarico began naming Musk’s donation in his stump speech as the epitome of the moneyed influence he said had corrupted politics. Talarico often said the issue was less about right versus left and more about the uber-rich versus everyone else.

Paxton’s attorney-general history. AP said culture-war issues had helped propel Paxton to prominence as a state attorney general and described him as eager to use the office for partisan aims. Before the Senate campaign, Paxton led a failed lawsuit that sought to overturn the 2020 election after Trump claimed without evidence that it had been stolen.

The race therefore turns on whether Paxton can mobilize Republican voters while overcoming scrutiny of his legal and ethical record, and whether Talarico can turn frustration with costs and moneyed influence into votes beyond the Democratic base while answering questions about his own comments. A Talarico victory would end the 30-year losing streak for Democrats in Texas statewide elections; Republicans are defending both the seat and their increasingly fragile Senate majority.