Record fundraising and historically large Hispanic turnout mark a close election
BBC News reported that recent polls suggest Democratic state legislator James Talarico, 37, holds a narrow and stable lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The outlet said Democrats could win the seat for the first time since 1988, and the race may help determine which party controls Congress next year. The stakes have helped make the race the most expensive in U.S. history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars, BBC News reported.
Hispanic voters have cast ballots in historically large numbers during more than a week of early voting in Texas, BBC News reported. Talarico’s lead remains near the margin of error in most surveys. Last-minute Republican appeals and Trump’s repeated campaign visits could spur conservatives to turn out in greater numbers on election day and erase any Democratic early-voting advantages.
Texas is the second-most populous state in America, and Democrats’ losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades. BBC News said the power of Texas Democrats had been overestimated in the past and cited the 2018 campaign of Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who posted historic fundraising numbers, generated national attention and ultimately lost to Texas Senator Ted Cruz by just over 2%.
BBC News reported that Talarico had been a relatively unknown state-level Democrat in 2025, making his rise a remarkable one. The outlet described Paxton as an ineffective fundraiser, while third-party money spent on his behalf aired across Texas and in sporting events involving Texas teams that broadcast nationwide. Elon Musk, whom BBC News described as the world’s richest man and whose SpaceX company is based in Texas, put more than $170m into the race. Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. committee contributed $40m. BBC News described Talarico as a historically successful fundraiser who amassed more than $140m in donations over the course of his campaign and set a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate. The funding enabled him to highlight Paxton’s controversies and defend himself against Republican attacks.
BBC News described Talarico as an effective candidate after he defeated well-known Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Since earning the nomination, he has maintained his polling lead despite extensive negative advertising, much of it funded by Musk. The advertising focused on earlier comments by Talarico: his past comments supporting transgender people, his calling of “radicalised white men” a domestic terrorism threat and his criticism of the fossil-fuel and beef industries, which BBC News described as two powerful interests in Texas. Talarico distanced himself from some of those earlier comments, arguing that many were taken out of context, had “missed the mark” or were “deliberately provocative” or “cringy.”
Paxton, 63, defeated longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, 74, in a contentious primary earlier this year. Paxton criticized Cornyn as too old and too out of touch with Texas conservatives and received a late boost, just days before his runoff victory, from Trump’s endorsement. On Truth Social, Trump wrote, “Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN,” adding, “Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.” Paxton’s record also includes a 2015 federal indictment on securities-fraud charges that was later dropped and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on corruption, bribery and abuse-of-power charges. The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton after Trump intervened to pressure state Republican leaders, BBC News reported. Paxton has faced criticism from outside and within his own party, the outlet said.
BBC News described the national environment for Republicans as harsh. Voters were frustrated with high consumer costs, including the price of petrol, and largely blamed Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran war. Political corruption had become an issue of growing concern. In a recent Cook Political Report poll, Democrats, independents and many Republicans identified “greedy billionaires and corporations” and politicians seeking “personal gain” as the ones to blame.
BBC News said Texas-specific issues had also contributed to a hostile climate for the party in power. Polling and recent special elections in Texas indicated that Hispanic voters — many of whom switched to Trump to help him win the White House in 2024 — had soured on the administration’s immigration-enforcement policies. Hispanics make up nearly a third of the state’s population, and during more than a week of early voting, they have cast ballots in historically large numbers.
Data-centre construction, which Texas Republicans had touted as a welcome investment in the state, has drawn widespread criticism, particularly in rural areas that had traditionally been solidly conservative. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who is in his own tight re-election race, recently announced a one-year moratorium on AI construction in the state, BBC News reported. An unnamed Texas political strategist who asked to remain anonymous told BBC News, “It’s bad for Republicans,” adding, “We’re asking a whole lot of the electorate at this point for us to continue to be the guys in charge.”
For weeks, party leaders warned that a Democratic breakthrough in the Lone Star State could have dire consequences. They feared a Talarico victory would encourage more local Democrats to run for statewide and federal offices. They said better-quality candidates with more funding could lead to a snowball effect similar to the Democratic inroads seen in other southern states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Texas-based Republican campaign strategist Brendan Steinhauser said, “If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it’s going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide.” He also said, “I think that it’s pretty clear that Republicans, especially candidates, consultants, operatives, and others who are active in the party, see that this is a real threat.” Steinhauser added, “The days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over.” He called the combination of events and political dynamics a “perfect storm” and said, “Everything that could go well for the Democrats is going well, and everything that could go badly for the Republicans is going badly.” BBC News said Trump had contributed significantly to the political dynamics over the previous year.
President Donald Trump won Texas in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. At roughly the same time Talarico was addressing supporters in Lubbock, Trump appeared with Paxton a few miles away at a venue twice the size of the Fiesta Center. Trump told the crowd, “If you go out and vote, we’re going to have a tremendous win in Texas.” BBC News said the visit to reliably Republican Lubbock suggested party concern about turnout even in the state’s most conservative areas. On Friday’s podcast, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said, “Understand, we could lose Texas,” adding, “The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans.” Don Huffines, who is running for state chief financial officer, posted on X, “Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America.” He added, “When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.”
At the Fiesta Center in Lubbock on Tuesday night, the line to see Talarico stretched around the building and down the wide parking lot to a busy road. Talarico was a former teacher who studied to become a Christian minister. Lubbock is a dusty western-plains town of about 250,000 that voted overwhelmingly for Trump two years earlier, making a major Democratic candidate’s visit on the eve of an election unusual. Aaron Gonzalez, the Democratic Party chair for Hockley County, which borders Lubbock, said, “It’s just so amazing to watch.” He added, “This time is different.”
Talarico took the stage before an estimated 3,000 supporters, with another thousand listening on speakers outside. His argument echoed themes used by national Democrats that year while adding criticism of Texas politics. He criticized a conservative political establishment that he said was insensitive to the economic hardship of average Americans, condemned the influence of big money in politics and promised to advance a “comprehensive anti-corruption agenda” in the Senate. “Texans are ready for change,” he said. “We are done with the extremism and the corruption. We’re done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new.”
Talarico’s slogan for the final two weeks of campaigning, “clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose,” came from Friday Night Lights, a popular early-2000s television show about a small-town Texas high school football team. His music playlist leaned heavily on Texas country music. Talarico celebrated Texas breakfast tacos, quoted singer-songwriter Lyle Lovett and frequently mentioned that his ties to the state went back eight generations. Andrew Robinson, a 26-year-old student from nearby Texas Tech University, liked what he heard, but his optimism was tempered by a lifetime spent watching Democrats fail to gain a foothold in the state. “A Talarico win would mean so much,” Robinson said. “I haven’t been keen on wanting to stay in Texas. And if the government were to change, it could give me a reason.”
Talarico also frequently drew on his religious upbringing. He is the grandson of a Southern Baptist preacher who spent time in a seminary, and he has included biblical references in his stump speeches. He recently used the Old Testament account of David and Goliath to describe the political forces he faced. “We are going up against our own Goliaths,” Talarico said in Lubbock. “The billionaire mega-donors, the corporate special interests, the entire Washington DC establishment. Their power is real, but so is ours.”
Inside the small Democratic Party office at a Talarico rally in Amarillo on Tuesday, retired schoolteacher Terri Mills listened to his stump speech. She said she had seen previous false dawns during decades of Democratic losses but was allowing herself to hope for another Democratic victory. “I have gotten my hopes up before, you know,” Mills said. “But I do feel that this time is a little different.”