A recent poll found 53% of Latino voters preferred a Democratic congressional candidate
Hispanic voter turnout in the Rio Grande Valley was far ahead of the 2022 midterms on Monday, the eighth day of Texas’ two-week early-voting period. Statewide, Hispanic voters made up a higher share of the electorate than at the same point in 2022 and 2024, according to Ryan Data & Research. The Wall Street Journal reported signs of growing disenchantment among Latino voters over economic pressures and the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll found 53% of Latino voters picked a Democrat for Congress, compared with 35% for a Republican. On Trump’s job approval among Latinos, the poll found 26% approval and 68% disapproval, significantly lower than Trump’s 37% approval among voters overall.
Hispanic voters helped propel Trump’s 2024 return to the White House, and Trump flipped all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley, a predominantly Latino region that had long been a Democratic stronghold but had shifted right in recent elections. Trump appealed especially to Hispanic men with promises to lower the cost of living and tighten border security and immigration enforcement. The Wall Street Journal reported that growing disenchantment over his handling of the economy and his administration’s immigration enforcement suggested those gains were unraveling.
Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map last year in part around their gains with Latino voters, betting that the support would flip five Democratic-held seats. Several of those races are now competitive, meaning Republicans could fall short of their goal.
The Rio Grande Valley could also prove pivotal in the state’s marquee U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The Talarico campaign made an early and forceful investment in courting Latino voters, including major spending on Spanish-language advertising, and Latino voters ultimately backed him strongly in the Democratic primary.
Talarico told The Wall Street Journal that many Hispanic Texans had trusted Trump to lower costs, drain the swamp in Washington, D.C., end wars and release the Epstein files but now believed he had not followed through. “A lot of Hispanic Texans are feeling disillusioned,” Talarico said. “They’re feeling like they were let down. And they’re looking for a senator who’s actually going to deliver on their promises.”
Republicans were still courting Latino voters, in part by portraying Democrats as too liberal on social issues. Trump campaigned several times in Texas this month to boost Paxton and said he had not lost Hispanic support. Asked for his message to Hispanic voters who felt betrayed by his policies, Trump said earlier this month, “We have to do what we have to do,” of his administration’s immigration enforcement.
The Wall Street Journal cautioned that the movement back toward Democrats did not mean Latino voters had become reliable Democratic voters. Its conversations with voters, strategists and candidates showed Latino voters moving back toward Democrats amid frustration with Trump, but not becoming dependable Democratic voters.
In Weslaco, construction-company owner Abad Morales said Trump’s 2024 campaign question, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” had influenced him. Two years later, Morales said life had only gotten worse. He said he was having a harder time finding workers for his construction jobs while the cost of everything continued to rise. His company could not host its annual toy drive this year because it was using that money to help friends and local families who had been deported.
Morales’ frustration with Trump has pushed him deeper into politics. Once largely disengaged, he is running for the Weslaco city commission and has become a Democratic precinct chair. By his count, he has helped register more than 350 voters this year. “I’m done. I don’t think it’s right what he’s doing at all,” Morales, 36, said of Trump. “We need a change. It’s time to put our foot down and make a change.”
Anthony Acosta, 34, owns two Mexican restaurants in the Rio Grande Valley. He said competitors had gone out of business because costs kept rising and fewer people were dining out because they could not afford it or feared encounters with immigration agents. Acosta had never voted in a federal election because he felt his vote did not count, but he planned to vote this year. “I don’t play scratch-offs, but when things are really really bad, I’ll take whatever chance I can get. One in million, one in a billion,” Acosta said. “Hey, you know what? A little bit of hope is better than no hope at all.”
At the southern tip of Texas, advertising for Republican congressional candidate Eric Flores initially resembled standard campaign material. Red billboards featured a smiling photo of Flores alongside Trump and read “Trump Endorsed” and “Support ICE!” Disclosure statements showed that local Democrats had paid for the signs.
Flores is challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a district redrawn to help the GOP. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently changed the race from a tossup rating to leaning Democratic. The Flores campaign sent a cease-and-desist letter to a billboard company seeking removal of the signs and others mimicking Flores’ signage. “That’s what Democrats think will be damaging?” Flores said of his endorsement from Trump. “Why aren’t they running on their positive platform?”
Flores, a former Army National Guard infantry captain and federal prosecutor, has campaigned on balancing border security with a visa program for workers and emphasizing energy independence. Gonzalez has sought to tie Flores to Trump-administration policies. “This gentleman has somehow painted me out that I’m responsible for the Iran war, for higher gas prices,” Flores said. “I’m not the elected official.”
David Garza, a Brownsville lawyer and conservative Republican, has always supported Trump and praised the president for bringing the border under control. Garza said that was welcome to residents frustrated by the sustained influx of migrants and what they viewed as a chaotic border situation. He also said Trump had gone off track on several issues, including starting the war in Iran and immigration-enforcement tactics.
Garza still liked Trump overall, but said he planned to leave at least three races blank on his ballot because he opposed the Republicans running in those races and would not back the Democrats. He declined to name the candidates, citing their “personality issues” and “too much baggage.” “There’s a few people like me that are going to sit it out,” he said. “I made up my mind.”
Contractor Benny Melendez voted for Trump in 2024 because he was upset about inflation under the Biden administration and the border crisis he saw locally. He now said he regretted that decision after watching workers, including some with valid work permits, dragged from job sites. Melendez said he could not get houses finished and would see no profit this year. “I decided to punish Biden and the Democrats by voting Republican and now, for the same reason, I’m going to punish Trump and vote Democrat again,” Melendez said. “I’m tired of playing that game.”