Trump shifts campaign focus as Democrats gain ground before 2026 midterms

Panel voters cite economy, labor and immigration priorities

With the 2026 U.S. midterms less than two weeks away, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance are directing their pre-election message toward Ukraine and France as Democrats gain ground on several major issues in recent polling. Trump is traveling across multiple states as the Republican administration faces questions about affordability, immigration and the Iran war. In an analysis by Callum Jones originally published in The Stakes 2026 newsletter about the midterms, The Guardian said Trump and his allies were trying to “change the subject” even as voters continued to focus on the issues shaping their votes.

Voting booths at the Silver Spring civic building for the first day of early voting, on Thursday in Maryland. Photograph: Allison Robbert/AP.

In the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey cited by The Guardian, respondents were asked which of the two main parties they trusted to do a better job handling a dozen issues, including affordability, corruption, taxes, transgender issues, the economy, immigration and crime. A greater share chose Democrats than Republicans on all but crime. Callum Jones cited reporting by Guardian colleague Shrai Popat that most Americans thought Donald Trump was using the U.S. presidency to enrich himself and that his approval rating had fallen to a new low.

The survey showed sharp shifts on the economy and immigration. Republicans held a one-point advantage on the economy in April but trailed Democrats by nine points in the latest results, which the source identified as an issue voters consistently rank as a top concern. On immigration, which Trump and his officials placed at the heart of his second presidency, a five-point Republican lead in April reversed. Almost two years into what The Guardian described as the administration’s “deadly and controversial crackdown,” Democrats were ahead by two points. The changes came as the White House continued to hail a “new golden age.”

The Guardian’s Callum Jones called the polling disconcerting for Republicans less than two weeks before election day. His central assessment was that the election will not turn on one issue: tens of millions of Americans will vote in November, but “the US electorate is not a monolith,” with different priorities and concerns shaped by different pressures and realities. The outlet listed affordability, Iran, healthcare, taxes and crime among the concerns that could shape the vote. He said the challenge for any party was addressing enough of those concerns and obtaining enough voters’ trust to build a coalition.

The source’s three-person voter panel illustrated that spread. Justin Daniels, 45, in Detroit, Michigan, named economic malaise as his most significant issue. Yajaira Martinez, 43, in Pharr, Texas, named labor. For Scott Akridge, 60, in Marietta, Georgia, the article identified the administration’s “brutal crackdown on immigration” as his most significant issue.

Midterm elections are almost always difficult for the party governing Washington, and the conventional response calls for senior figures to travel nationally and reassure people who backed the governing party two years earlier that officials understand their concerns and need more time. Trump had already appeared in Kansas on Monday and North Carolina on Tuesday; later stops were South Carolina on Wednesday, Iowa on Thursday and Florida on Friday, followed by Georgia and Michigan that weekend. JD Vance was also on a cross-country tour of his own.

Jones said Trump and his allies departed from that approach. They did not acknowledge that the “golden age” had “yet to shine for much of the country,” nor concede that some priorities “since taking office,” including beautification of Washington and adding Trump’s name to the Kennedy Center, were not among the 2024 campaign promises his base had found appealing. Trump “has tried to change the subject,” Jones wrote.

During the summer, as questions over Iran, the cost of living and hard-line anti-immigration policies loomed large, the most powerful elected officials in the United States tried to stoke fears that communism was rife inside the Democratic Party, according to Jones. In September, Trump dangled a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every U.S. citizen, a proposal widely criticized as a “pre-election bribe.” In the final stretch of the campaign, those questions remained. Rather than address them, Jones wrote, Republicans “appear to be resorting to a volatile mix of distraction and distortion.”

Ukraine provided the clearest new focus. The Guardian reported that after Trump launched the Iran war in February and spent much of it claiming the conflict was about to end, he struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, paused some sanctions on Moscow and suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should quit.

France became another focus for Republican messaging as fresh unrest gripped France over the weekend. Demonstrations that began as student protests against crumbling schools and the soaring cost of living were, in Vance’s words, evidence of “western liberals” having “imported the third world” into their countries. “And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country,” he said. Trump echoed similar warnings in recent public appearances, according to Guardian reporters Joseph Gedeon and David Smith.

Many Americans were paying close attention, Jones wrote, “not to France, necessarily, but to the issues that dominate their daily lives.” He said the November vote would show whom Americans trusted to address those issues. The Guardian’s U.S. politics team also hosted a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms. The final session featured Guardian immigration reporters answering questions about ICE and Trump’s mass deportation agenda; other conversations covered the Democratic Party’s makeup and key races to watch, groups financially backing candidates, the Iran war’s potential cost to Trump in the midterms and how Trump’s economy might affect Republicans.

The Republican senator Roger Marshall, right, and the Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton debate in Kansas City, Missouri, on Wednesday. Photograph: Charlie Riedel/AP.

In Kansas, where voters have not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton has been pledging to “turn down the heat” and ignore partisan battles amid rising political polarization. Some recent polls have put him ahead.

Mary Peltola at a primary election watch party on 18 August 2026 in Anchorage, Alaska. Photograph: Mark Thiessen/AP.

Mary Peltola’s campaign to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate has taken her to parts of the huge state’s interior that are inaccessible by road and to the front lines of the cost-of-living crisis she hopes will make her the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly two decades. In towns she has visited, paper towels retail for $40, a half-gallon of oat milk costs $21 and a new freezer can cost four times as much as in Anchorage because shipping is so difficult. Peltola has also heard of communities along the Arctic Ocean where power bills have climbed to $1,500 a month as residents rely on generators and the Iran war pushes diesel costs to new heights.

“Nobody can afford that,” Peltola said in an interview.

The Guardian’s assessment was that no single issue would decide the result. Voters will test the parties on whether each can address enough of their differing concerns and obtain enough trust to build a coalition. The November vote will show whom Americans trust to handle the issues that dominate their daily lives.