Republicans' rare mid-decade redistricting likely falls short in House fight

Democrats were favored to win the House with three seat flips

Republicans tried to insulate themselves from losing the House with rare, mid-decade redistricting, but NPR’s Domenico Montanaro said the effort likely would not be enough to keep the chamber. Democrats were favored to win the House, where three seat flips would deliver control, and Montanaro said the landscape had shifted considerably in their favor within the previous month.

NPR’s Domenico Montanaro set out the Senate math: Democrats needed to flip four seats for control, a target he said was considered out of reach when the cycle began but made possible by strong Democratic recruits and a difficult national political environment for Republicans. He said the chamber was too close to call.

Democrats were favored to flip one seat, North Carolina. Beyond that seat, the races were toss-ups or Republicans were slight favorites, and the contests were taking place on Republican-leaning ground. Apart from Maine, the five toss-ups held by Republicans were in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Trump had been in many red states ahead of Election Day to try to turn out his base, with Michigan the Republicans’ top turnout target. Montanaro said a Republican win in Michigan’s Senate race would change Democrats’ calculation. Separately, NPR counted 36 races for governor on the ballot this year.

Republican turnout was a major key. Republican voters vote overwhelmingly in person on Election Day, and Montanaro said this cycle put many red states and districts in play. He said there were many other variables in the outcome.

High Republican turnout could limit Democrats to a single seat pickup, Montanaro said. Low turnout among Republican voters could open up to six or seven seats and result in Democratic control of the Senate.

Election Day voting was scheduled to end on Nov. 3. More than 54 million people had already cast ballots, nearly half of the total ballots cast in the last midterm election. Democrats held a double-digit advantage based on available early-voting data.

Results were scheduled to start coming in at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana. NPR’s live election special was scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.

Montanaro said that in many places the result would not be known on election night as states counted votes in what were expected to be many close races. The count could take days or weeks.

Democrats held the advantage in the House, while the Senate remained genuinely undecided, Montanaro said. Many races would not be resolved on election night.