Democrats enter midterms favored in House and within reach of Senate control

Cook ratings and redistricting narrow the competitive field

Democrats enter the 2026 midterms favored to take the House and within striking distance of the Senate, according to an NPR analysis published Nov. 1, 2026. The Senate contest, a longshot at the beginning of the cycle, is now within reach, but Cook Political Report ratings and an NPR redistricting estimate point to structural limits on the party’s advantage.

One major constraint is the House map. Looking at Cook Political Report ratings, Montanaro found about 30 fewer competitive districts in 2026 than in 2018, defining the category as districts rated “lean or toss up.” In 2018, Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 House seats.

Mid-decade redistricting has also helped insulate Republicans, though only marginally. After redistricting fights across the country, with Trump explicitly pushing GOP-led state legislatures to seek more Republican seats, NPR estimated Republicans netted an eight-seat advantage. Depending on how Latinos in South Texas vote, the estimated advantage might be lower.

Election-night counting could extend beyond a single night. Most states and districts were expected to be called by bedtime, but some races would remain unresolved, potentially in key places. With margins narrow, particularly in the Senate, party control might not be known for days or weeks. The latest NPR poll found that most people across party lines overwhelmingly believed their states would run fair and accurate elections and that their preferred candidate should accept the outcome. A quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely should not accept the results; Montanaro said that leaves room for potential “chaos and misinformation” if close races remain undecided for weeks.

Montanaro wrote that Trump was already laying the groundwork for claims of “rigged elections.” He said Trump had done that after “every election that hasn’t gone his way previously in one way or another.” Montanaro also linked Trump’s “false claims of fraud” after the 2020 election to the Jan. 6 siege at the Capitol.

Nothing is settled until the votes are counted, Montanaro said, and Republican turnout was pivotal. Trump had been deployed to red states to urge his base to vote; without a large GOP turnout, a one- or two-seat Democratic Senate pickup could quickly become six or seven. Montanaro called a Democratic failure to win the House “the shocker of all shockers” and said it would represent a polling error unlike one seen this century.

Historical midterm results point in the same direction. Only twice since World War II has the president’s party gained House seats in a midterm election. The average loss is 26 seats; when presidential approval is below 50%, as Trump’s has been, the average loss is 35 seats. When approval is above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats, 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular. Trump has acknowledged at campaign events that presidents’ parties lose seats in midterms. Montanaro said Democrats also had consistently overperformed in special elections, which he described as indicators of midterm prowess, and had done well in the 2025 off-year elections. He said the political landscape had worsened for Republicans since then because of what he called the “unpopular Iran war” and the “skyrocketing gas prices” it produced.

Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices, but that had not happened, Montanaro said. Voters were blaming Trump for prices that continued to rise after he took office for his second term, while Trump faced record-low approval ratings and record-high intensity of opposition. Most presidents receive more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy, Montanaro said, but his narrower causal argument was that the war with Iran and Trump’s tariffs were choices that directly led to higher prices for goods and energy.

The economy was increasingly divided, Montanaro said. Wealthy Americans were doing well in large part because their stock portfolios had become dominated by AI companies, while other Americans were turning against AI data centers and struggling with inflation that outpaced wages, a middling labor market and interest rates that were creeping higher. Higher borrowing costs were making homes and cars harder to buy, leaving millions of people feeling as if they were treading water.

The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of respondents said their finances had mostly stayed the same, 38% said their economic situations had worsened and 15% said they had improved. Montanaro cited disapproval of the administration’s “hard-line immigration enforcement tactics,” cuts to domestic spending on programs such as Medicaid and other health care programs, and reductions in regulations and the government workforce. He said those developments were angering swing voters and energizing Democrats.

Neither party was viewed favorably, Montanaro said. Democrats had trouble mobilizing a group of voters who should be Democrats but were “restive and unsatisfied by the party,” he said. The latest NPR poll found that self-identified “democratic socialists” were very engaged in the midterms and strongly disapproved of Trump’s performance.

Montanaro said the group might vote in large numbers “as a check on Trump.” The poll found that 44% of respondents viewed their vote as a vote against Trump, while 21% viewed it as a vote for him. He said a clash of ideals and approaches was likely to develop on the left during the Democratic presidential primaries.

Montanaro said the 2028 contest would begin almost immediately after the midterms. He described it as the first open presidential election after Trump, the Obama-Biden years, the Clintons and the Bushes. Candidates seeking a splash and a national boost tend to announce early rather than late, he said, pointing to January and February.

Montanaro wrote, “Trump has been a clear drag on the GOP this cycle.” Trump’s mentions in Republican candidates’ primary advertisements had been high but were nearly nonexistent by the midterms, he said. He said Republicans “will admit privately” that Trump is “a double-edged sword,” “needed with the base, but toxic with swing voters.” Montanaro described Trump as “beloved by an ardent slice of the country and loathed by an even bigger one,” placing the anti-Trump group above the ardent pro-Trump group in size.

Montanaro said polls had found consistently over a long period in 2026 that Trump’s support among many voters who crossed over to vote for him in 2024 had cratered. He cited economic strain and the United States’ continued involvement in the ongoing war Trump had promised to keep the country out of. Montanaro said claims of electoral unfairness would carry little weight, but neither party was positioned for massive majorities, and compromise would be necessary to accomplish major tasks.