Democrats lead House polling as Trump approval stays below 50%

Cost of living leads concerns as likely voters emphasize change and election confidence

Democrats hold a national advantage in the 2026 House contest, but the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll suggests the size of that lead may not translate into a comparable number of House seats won. Democrats led the generic congressional ballot among registered voters by 10 points and among likely voters by 8 points, leaving them the favorites for House control. The poll also identifies uneven enthusiasm, widespread concern about President Trump and sharp partisan differences over confidence in fair elections.

The survey polled a national sample of 1,289 registered voters from Oct. 19-20 by phone, text and online. The margin of error was 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters, putting results within a range of roughly eight points, or about four points lower or higher. It was the first survey this cycle in which Marist applied a likely-voter screen, and the methodology applied a likely-voter weight to all registered voters. Likely-voter screens commonly use metrics including levels of enthusiasm, past voting history and the importance of voting to respondents. On multiple questions, likely voters were within the margin of error slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of Trump. Likely voters overall were also slightly less likely to want Democrats to run Congress. NPR said even a slight margin can affect how significant the gains either party might make appear.

NPR noted that Democrats’ previous House-ballot leads averaged +7 in 2018 and +12 in 2006, and that Democrats won the House in both years with at least 30 seats flipped. Those results came before the 2020 Census and the ensuing regular redistricting, as well as the unusual mid-decade redistricting of the last year and a half. After Trump asked Republican states to redraw maps in ways that could give Republicans more seats, Democrats followed suit. NPR said both redistricting periods tilted congressional seats toward Republicans and gave the party a relative national advantage. It also said those structural disadvantages and past performance appeared to help explain the nervousness among Democrats. In related coverage, NPR reported that Republicans were spending millions but still might not win districts drawn to favor them.

NPR’s related election coverage assessed that Ohio could decide control of the Senate and that rural voters in the state might decide the winner. Another embedded NPR report said Democrats in Arkansas see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms map.

Among Democratic likely voters, 98% said they would vote for a Democrat, but only 81% thought the Democrat would win, a 17-point difference. Republicans were only 10 points less likely than Democrats to believe their own candidates would win. Among independents, a higher share thought the Democratic candidate would win.

Democratic likely voters were 10 points more likely than Republican likely voters to say they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, 71% compared with 61%. The 10-point likely-voter gap was wider than the difference between Democratic and Republican registered voters in the poll.

Enthusiasm was lower among three Democratic groups. Just 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting. All three groups disapproved of Trump’s job performance. By comparison, the poll found that 68% of MAGA voters, 66% of white women without degrees and 61% of white evangelical voters were very enthusiastic. Forty-eight percent of independents said they were very enthusiastic.

Turnout patterns complicate the enthusiasm comparison. Younger voters and Black and Latino voters traditionally turn out at disproportionately lower rates in midterm elections. With the realignment under Trump, more white, college-educated voters are voting Democratic and, as a group, they turn out at the highest rates. The parties were nearly even in their reported attention to the election: last month, 34% of registered Republicans said they were following it “very closely,” compared with 42% of Democrats; the October survey found 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans at that level. Among likely voters, the split was 51% to 50%. People who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 were 15 points more likely than Trump’s 2024 voters to say they were very enthusiastic. Democrats also had an 8-point advantage in the share saying they cared a “great deal” about who controlled Congress.

Three-quarters of likely voters were confident their state and local governments would run fair and accurate elections. Confidence included 88% of Democrats, 75% of independents and 68% of Republicans, leaving Republicans 20 points behind Democrats. MAGA supporters were almost 30 points less likely to express confidence. Large majorities of likely voters also said their preferred candidate should accept the election results. That included 70% of Republicans, again 20 points below Democrats, while a quarter of Republicans said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results. Among self-described democratic socialists, 86% backed acceptance, compared with 65% of MAGA supporters; MAGA supporters were twice as likely to favor a challenge. In related coverage, NPR reported that the Justice Department had begun notifying counties where it wanted to monitor elections.

Trump’s job approval stood at 38% among registered voters and 40% among likely voters, while disapproval reached 61% and 59%, producing net ratings of -23 and -19. An equal 53% of registered and likely voters said they strongly disapproved of his job performance, tying the previous month’s highest-ever level in the poll. Trump’s favorability among likely voters was weaker: 37% viewed him favorably and 59% negatively. An embedded NPR White House story characterized Trump as leaning into “unprecedented power” ahead of the midterm elections.

Trump’s absence from the ballot did not remove him from the choice. Forty-four percent of likely voters said their vote would be against Trump, while 21% said it would be for him. In the 2024 presidential election, 55% of Trump voters said their vote was for their candidate, according to exit polls. Trump has asked voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot, but NPR cautioned that his unpopularity may not translate directly into Democratic votes because some swing voters object to what they see as a lurch in parts of the Democratic Party toward democratic socialism.

Matthew Schroder, a 38-year-old independent in Charlotte, N.C., was part of the poll. He backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. He said he was unhappy with Trump’s job performance but that it was not driving his vote this year. He was supporting Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the state’s closely watched race for U.S. Senate.

“What I have seen on the left-hand side is a little bit more of an embrace of democratic socialism, which I just oppose completely,” Schroder said. He added, “I know Roy Cooper is considered a moderate, but the fact that the Democratic Party is even letting some of these voices be heard a little bit more … is not something I’m interested in in the least.” Schroder said, “It’s not a vote of ‘yes for Trump’ as much as a vote of, Democrats need to completely reject [democratic socialism] and go a completely different direction.”

Voting for candidates with new ideas who would bring about change was more important to 55% of likely voters and 57% of registered voters. NPR said this preference was working in Democrats’ favor and against incumbents. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, participated in the survey. He said he had never seen himself as an impassioned midterm voter until this year.

“This year is different. This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power,” Agan said. He was backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate. Agan added, “We’ve been seeing a very slow decline in the standard of living in this state, and it’s becoming apparently evident to more people at this time,” and said, “I think Talarico embodies that realization that there needs to be change.”

The survey also shed light on issue priorities across the ideological spectrum. The cost of living remained the leading concern overall. A third of respondents said they had experienced financial hardship in the past year, and nearly four in 10 — 38% — said their personal finances had worsened, while 44% said they had stayed about the same. Younger generations reported more financial insecurity and were more likely to have moved, changed jobs or lost a job during the past year.

Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans toward Democrats, participated in the poll. “The economy is at the top of my list right now,” he said. High food and gas prices strained him, he said: “They’re too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for,” and “They’re just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don’t like that.”

On data centers, NPR noted that AI continues to face an uphill public-opinion challenge. Six in 10 respondents said construction of new facilities would mostly have a negative effect on the country, although majorities of Republicans and MAGA supporters expected a net positive effect. Sixty-six percent opposed construction of a data center in their own community; Republicans were split, while Democrats and independents overwhelmingly opposed the projects. Forty-one percent strongly opposed local data centers.

Preserving democracy continued to resonate with Democrats and independents, while immigration was the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters. Sixty-one percent said immigrants should have a legal way to stay if they meet certain requirements, while two-thirds of Republicans said immigrants should be required to leave. On government, 57% said it is almost always wasteful and inefficient, including majorities of Republicans and independents. Almost six in 10 Democrats said government often does a better job than people give it credit for, including 59% of democratic socialists.

Gun policy was nearly evenly divided: 48% said passing stricter gun-control laws was more important, while 46% prioritized protecting the right to own guns. Independents were largely split, but roughly nine in 10 Democrats favored gun control and 85% of Republicans favored gun rights. On equality, 70% said an ideal society needs equality for all groups rather than one in which some groups are on top and others on the bottom. Republicans were largely split, while 97% of democratic socialists selected equality.