New poll finds Democrats 11 points ahead among registered voters

Record-low Republican trust on immigration and rising prices

The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, shared with NPR, surveyed 2,028 respondents from Oct. 13 to 19 and carries a margin of sampling error of 2.2 percentage points, meaning results could be about 2.2 points higher or lower. Less than two weeks out from Election Day, voters said they would prefer to elect a Democrat to Congress over a Republican by a double-digit margin: 52% to 41% among registered voters and 54% to 42% among likely voters. Trump’s job approval sits at 34%, with 62% disapproving and 50% strongly disapproving, near record lows for his second term.

The poll found record-low trust in Republicans to handle the issues voters themselves rank highest, including immigration and rising prices. Asked which party they trust to handle their personal top issue, respondents backed Democrats 47% to 35% — a nearly 10-point jump since May 2025 and the widest gap the poll has measured.

Among adults, prices and inflation are collectively mentioned far and away as the most important problem facing the country today, with 63% saying it was one of their top three most important problems and 39% listing it first. Other top issues include jobs and the economy, health care, elections and democracy and immigration.

In May 2025, the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats on immigration and deportations by an average of 15 points; now they trust Democrats by a narrow one-point margin, a swing of roughly 16 points on a single issue over the year and a half the pollsters have tracked. In every measure the poll has tracked, Republicans have lost ground over that period, and they hold only a slim advantage on crime and public safety issues and on border security.

G. Elliott Morris, author of the Strength In Numbers newsletter and CEO of polling company Wave Polling and Research, said the latest poll explains the current challenges with the political landscape Republicans face. “Trump’s ratings hit new lows on seven of the 10 issues we’ve tracked since May 2025, from jobs and trade to immigration and border security, and he’s now underwater on every issue we ask about,” Morris said. “The president’s policies have even harmed Republicans, with voters now more likely to say they trust Democrats to handle the issues of immigration and the economy.”

Many polls, including the September NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, find that the 2026 midterm choices are best viewed in relation to Trump rather than as a pure binary vote of support for the Democratic or Republican candidates. In the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, only 25% of respondents said it was more important to elect a Congress that would help Trump pass his agenda, compared with 58% who said it was about electing a Congress to act as a check and balance on Trump.

On ballot motivation, two of every five voters surveyed said their decision would mostly be a statement against Trump and his agenda, compared with one in five who said it would be a statement of support. For 20% of voters surveyed, their choice would be about specific issues and candidates in their district.

The poll also finds a strong majority who want the next Congress to undo President Trump’s agenda, or act as a check on his power, on policies such as tariffs and trade, health care and immigration. On tariffs and trade, health care, foreign policy, elections and voting, government spending and social programs, immigration and deportations and artificial intelligence, a majority of those surveyed said they want a Congress to roll back or act as a check on Trump’s stances.

On party identification, more voters think the Democratic Party cares more about people like them than Republicans, and 20% say neither party does.

Voters chose to give Republicans control of the White House and Congress in the 2024 election, and at least some of them say they regret their choice. Nearly one in 10 people who said they voted in the 2024 presidential race regret their choice, including almost 15% of self-described Trump voters and 15% who backed a third-party candidate.

NPR’s reporting on the results said the sentiment of the electorate explains why Democrats and Republicans are spending big in House and Senate races stretching deep into conservative territory where Trump performed well in 2024.