Whatley must win over North Carolina independents in his first Senate bid

Cooper won four attorney general terms and two governor terms

Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley will meet Tuesday in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race. Whatley, President Donald Trump’s handpicked candidate, is making his first bid for elected office, while Cooper, a former Democratic governor, is among Democrats’ prized recruits. North Carolina has often sent Republicans to the Senate, but Cooper’s race is one of Democrats’ best chances to flip a Republican-held seat as they seek four Senate gains for control of the chamber. The seat is open because incumbent Thom Tillis is retiring after clashing with Trump last year.

North Carolina’s registration mix sets the candidates’ central electoral task. Registered Democrats and Republicans are split about evenly, while independent voters outnumber both. Whatley’s biggest challenge is maximizing Republican turnout while winning over the state’s growing independent electorate. Cooper’s undefeated electoral record shows that he has been able to add independent voters to his Democratic base: his 2016 and 2020 governor election wins came at the same time North Carolina voters opted for Trump over Democratic presidential nominees.

Cooper, 69, won four terms as state attorney general and two terms as governor. A loss for him would dampen Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority and could end his political career with his first statewide defeat. Whatley, 58, is a former state and national Republican Party chairman who has never held elected office and trails Cooper in fundraising. In October, Republicans shifted campaign cash away from North Carolina, a shift reported as a sign of pessimism about Whatley’s chances.

Cooper has focused on the economy, pledging to “make stuff cost less.” He has been broadly critical of Trump’s policies, especially tariffs and the war with Iran, but has typically avoided personal broadsides and consistently pledged a bipartisan approach if he reaches Capitol Hill. While governor, Cooper also emphasized support for public education and expansion of Medicaid insurance coverage, drawing contrasts with Whatley and Republicans.

Cooper said at a recent campaign rally: “I saw this administration take root, and I’d see two or three things happening almost every single day that reached a new level of chaos, any one of which we could talk about for hours. And I said, ‘Man, I’ve got to do something about this,’” He also promises, “I’m going to be a strong, independent senator for North Carolina.”

Whatley has not tried to distance himself from Trump, as some fellow Republicans have done across the country, and has welcomed Trump and Vice President JD Vance to North Carolina for multiple campaign events. “I am honored that we are going to have the greatest president of our lifetime, Donald J. Trump, here,” Whatley said ahead of a metro Charlotte rally with Trump. Most of his campaign energy has gone toward promoting Trump’s policies, especially the “big beautiful bill” and the tax cuts it included, and accusing Cooper of being soft on violent criminals during his service as governor and attorney general.

Trump escalated those attacks at the Charlotte-area rally, describing North Carolina’s cities as “blood-soaked killing fields.” Cooper rejects the characterization. The state’s violent crime rate ranks in the middle third of states, according to FBI statistics.

Trump and Cooper also disagreed over the response to Hurricane Helene. The 2024 storm battered western North Carolina in the final months of Cooper’s second term as governor, while Trump campaigned to return to the White House. Trump said Cooper “did nothing” to help storm victims. Cooper has rejected that accusation and points to work by state and local governments with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which Trump has since attempted to gut, according to Associated Press reporting.

Trump won North Carolina in all three of his presidential campaigns. The Senate contest comes amid widespread frustration over inflation and the war with Iran and will show how much his standing in the state has slipped.

Tuesday’s result will test whether Cooper can translate his statewide record into a Senate campaign and whether Whatley can maximize Republican turnout and win over independent voters in his first bid for elected office. A Whatley victory would preserve the seat for Republicans; a Cooper victory would give Democrats one of the four seat gains they need for control of the chamber.