European gas prices rise after midterms amid Iran strike uncertainty

Europe’s LNG imports were 84% of prewar average as global exports recovered

European natural-gas prices rose Wednesday after the U.S. midterm elections as traders waited to see whether President Trump would pursue diplomacy with Iran or launch renewed strikes, a decision The Wall Street Journal said could determine the outlook for global LNG flows. The Dutch TTF front-month contract, Europe’s benchmark, gained 1.5% to 93.02 euros a megawatt-hour in early Wednesday trading.

The contract traded below the peaks of the 2022 energy crisis but climbed above 100 euros last week, its highest level since late December of that year, before pulling back on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war. Analysts said another escalation could send prices sharply higher and push the European benchmark back above 100 euros a megawatt-hour.

Other producers have helped offset much of the lost supply. Kpler reported that global LNG exports reached 98% of their prewar average in October, driven by U.S. shipments and Russian exports. Europe’s LNG imports, in the same month, were 84% of their prewar average, according to the data provider. More U.S. supply is also on the way: Plaquemines LNG’s first phase entered commercial operations, while the second train at Golden Pass LNG was expected to start in December.

Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that used to carry around 20% of global liquefied natural gas, have curbed exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with most of those exports bound for Asia. The Wall Street Journal reported that the loss of supplies has intensified competition between European and Asian buyers as both regions seek to secure fuel ahead of winter.

LNG exports from Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, are recovering slowly, according to Kpler. The country shipped 2.3 million metric tons of LNG in October, about 35% of its prewar monthly average and above the 1.6 million tons recorded in September. Seven LNG trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which was hit by Iranian strikes back in March, showed signs of heat activity last month, and loadings increased. Most vessels switched off their automatic identification systems, making shipments harder to track. Force majeure remains in place on some of QatarEnergy’s contracted LNG supplies into late December.

Europe’s position remains vulnerable heading into winter. Europe’s LNG imports were 84% of their prewar average in October, Kpler said. European Union gas storage was only 74.6% full, well below the seasonal average, amid colder temperatures in Northwest Europe. Germany also missed its 70% storage-refilling target. The Wall Street Journal reported that a cold snap, particularly if accompanied by weak wind generation that increases reliance on gas-fired power, could further tighten the market as Europe competes with Asia for available cargoes.

The European Union plans to ban Russian LNG imports from January 2027, which The Wall Street Journal said could complicate efforts to replenish supplies. Under that plan, imports of Russian LNG are set to be halted completely by Jan. 1, with remaining pipeline-gas imports ending no later than Nov. 1.

Democrats won control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress in Tuesday’s elections, according to The Wall Street Journal. The outcome could bring greater congressional scrutiny of Trump’s foreign policy, though the new Congress won’t take office until January, leaving the administration room to pursue its existing approach toward Iran in the coming weeks.

Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, said, “The uncertainty remains how Iran will respond to an eventual resurgence of strikes and which energy infrastructure in the region will become a target as a result.” Schmit said it remained uncertain when and if such an attack would take place, especially because further Russia/Ukraine peace talks were planned in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11. The assessment came as traders weighed whether the Trump administration would order fresh strikes on Tehran or sit at the negotiation table.