Mississippi Senate race between Hyde-Smith and Colom remains too early to call

Roughly 30,000 ballots remain uncounted statewide, with certified results due Nov. 13

The U.S. Senate race in Mississippi remained too early to call Friday, with nearly 2,500 votes separating Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom and ballots still being counted, according to the Associated Press. An unknown number of ballots remain outstanding. To call a race, the AP relies on its estimate of how many votes remain to be counted to ensure the trailing candidate has no path to overtake the leading candidate, and it calculates that estimate based on factors including past turnout, population changes, voter registration totals and any early turnout figures provided by elections officials.

That estimate shrank through the day and is revised continuously on election night and in the days after. On Friday morning the AP put the number of outstanding votes at around 44,000; after updated information from across the state, the estimate stood closer to 30,000 as of 4:45 p.m. ET. The AP said the figure could change as additional details are gathered.

Mississippi’s counting process explains the wait. The state has no central vote-reporting system, and few counties release results online, so AP journalists and analysts contact each of the state’s 82 counties directly for the latest counts. Counties also differ on when they release preliminary absentee results: some report on election night, while others release them in the days that follow.

State rules extend the count beyond Election Day. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days of the election — this year, by Nov. 10 — to be counted, so absentee totals can continue to climb after the election. Counties are required to report the results of provisional ballots when they file certified results with the state 10 days after the election, on Nov. 13.

Many counties, including larger ones such as Hinds and Rankin, historically report their absentee and provisional ballots after Election Day results have been counted. In the 2024 general election, 12.7% of votes cast in Mississippi were counted after all precincts reported on election night, a pattern the AP’s estimates take into account. In some counties, it remains unclear how many — if any — absentee ballots have yet to be counted, and with little insight into the process the AP’s estimates are largely based on past reporting patterns.

Provisional ballots add a further layer. Most Mississippi voters cast their ballots in person on Election Day, and only a limited number vote by absentee ballot, as the state requires voters to provide an excuse for not being able to vote in person. Mississippi also has some of the strictest voter ID laws in the nation: voters unable to provide photo identification at the polls complete provisional ballots, which are counted only if the voter presents identification to officials within five business days of Election Day. A voter whose registration status shows as inactive upon arriving at the polls may also cast a provisional ballot — a situation that can arise when a voter is erroneously believed to have become ineligible during election-roll maintenance.

On Thursday, Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 7,000 provisional ballots had been processed, of which about 80% had been accepted.

The county-level picture shows why the race remains open. In Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold, the AP estimated as of Friday afternoon that roughly 7% of ballots had yet to be counted; Colom currently leads Hyde-Smith there by roughly 47,000 votes. In 2024, roughly 15% of Hinds County’s vote had not been counted when all Election Day precincts had reported, and the AP received no further vote update from the county until the state certified the election.

In Rankin County, where President Donald Trump won 73% of the vote in 2024, the AP estimates around 2,200 votes are outstanding. County officials told the AP on Friday that they have 1,667 provisional ballots, 282 mail ballots received and 138 mail ballots outstanding; it is not clear whether all of those ballots will be counted. In 2024, roughly 23% of the county’s vote had not been counted after all Election Day precincts had reported. An update five days later brought the count to 95% of ballots cast, and the final 5% did not arrive until the state certified the election.

Mississippi has no automatic recounts and does not permit candidates to request one; recounts in the state occur only in the event of a court order. The AP said it may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome, and it is continuing to gather additional data on the number of outstanding ballots.

Associated Press writers Lauren Johnert, in Washington, and Hannah Barton, in Chicago, contributed to the AP report.