Australia’s economic fallout from the Iran War

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Developments in Australian inflation, fuel prices, interest rates, budget pressures and economic outlook as the Iran War disrupts global energy markets.

Chalmers downgrades forecasts for slower growth and higher unemployment

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Friday morning that his officials were downgrading forecasts ahead of December's mid-year budget update to show slower growth and higher unemployment. Chalmers told Politico that decisions taken in DC or…

2026-10-23 · 5 MIN READ

IMF scenario could push Australian petrol up 30 cents a litre

An International Monetary Fund scenario modeling a prolonged Middle East conflict projects global oil prices reaching US$130 a barrel from late 2026 through early 2027, a path economists said could push Australian unleaded petrol up…

2026-10-13 · 5 MIN READ

Chalmers warns of intensifying budget pressure, insists he is not planning for recession

The federal treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has warned of 'very substantial and intensifying' economic pressure on Australia's federal budget, blaming an eight-month US-led war against Iran and private-sector activity for driving up inflation,…

2026-10-04 · 3 MIN READ

Australian inflation rises to 4% in August, ABS says

Australia's headline inflation rate rose to 4% in the year to August, up from 3.5% in July, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data released September 30.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers attributed the increase to "the impact of higher global oil prices flowing through to oil prices in Australia," citing the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, and said it was "not an opinion" but "a fact."
Fuel prices surged 15% in August after the government ended its fuel excise cut and as a worsening Middle East conflict drove global oil prices higher, the ABS said.
Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said inflation "is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures," while also pointing to the Middle East conflict and a "sudden boom in AI-related spending on datacentres."
EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said "another rate hike looks likely by the end of the year," one day after the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.6% — the fourth increase in 2026.
Underlying inflation, which strips out the most volatile prices, was steady at 3.6% over the year to August — still well above the RBA's 2.5% target.

2026-09-30 · 4 MIN READ