European spy chiefs split on Russian threat timeline to NATO

Intelligence chiefs agree Russia’s European sabotage campaign will intensify

Three European intelligence chiefs offered differing assessments on the timing of potential Russian action against NATO in separate interviews with The Guardian published Sunday, with the head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service warning that a limited incursion could occur within “months, not years” while his Latvian counterpart said his agency sees no indications of an imminent attack.

Michal Koudelka, who leads the Czech BIS, said in a rare interview at the agency’s Prague headquarters that increased Russian drone activity could be accompanied by “a limited incursion, false flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign.” He said the scenario could play out within months, though he added that “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen.”

The warnings came after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia may launch an attack with drones or missiles on NATO territory in the coming months as part of efforts to prove that “article 5 is more theoretical than practical.” French President Emmanuel Macron called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-documented” and on Friday summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an emergency meeting in Paris, where they discussed, among other topics, intelligence of a growing threat from Russia.

The escalation fears come as the UN General Assembly convenes in New York later this week, and amid intensifying airstrikes between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv hit Moscow and other Russian regions with hundreds of drones and missiles in the early hours of Sunday, in one of its biggest air attacks of the war.

Normunds Mežviets, director general of the VDD, Latvia’s state security service, offered a more cautious assessment in an interview at the agency’s Riga headquarters. “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack,” he said, conceding that signs suggest Moscow is making preparations for more decisive action in Europe but adding that it remains “an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society.”

The contrast has put Baltic politicians, who for years criticized Western Europe for being soft on Russia, in the unusual position of urging some Western leaders to dial back their public messaging. On Saturday, Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s foreign ministry, decried “panic on social media” about a possible attack. “If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he wrote on X.

Mežviets said the shift was welcome. “Before 2022, we constantly warned our western European partners about the threat from Russia, but most of the time our voices were not listened to. In 2022, the approach of our partners changed,” he said. “They said it turns out the Balts and the Poles had been right.”

Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka would discuss what specific intelligence may have been obtained about Russian planning, nor would they comment on whether CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s surprise trip to Moscow last month, during which he stopped in Riga, was partly intended to warn the Kremlin against attacking NATO. After that visit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumors of a Russian attack on NATO as having “nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation.”

Many in Europe will have the buildup to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in the back of their minds, when US officials repeatedly warned Russia was preparing to invade and the Kremlin repeatedly denied it. As the full-scale war that ensued approaches its fifth winter, US-led efforts to bring about peace in Ukraine show no signs of success, with both Russia and Ukraine intensifying their drone and missile strikes on each other. Ukraine has destroyed much of Russia’s oil infrastructure, targeting refineries and other facilities over recent months.

Moscow has frequently said that the provision to Ukraine of weaponry, intelligence and military advisers makes western countries participants in the war and legitimate targets, but has so far avoided action that might provoke a coordinated response from NATO. Instead, it has launched what western agencies describe as a campaign of sabotage against targets in countries that are the loudest backers of Ukraine, and one-off incidents apparently meant to test boundaries, such as when more than a dozen drones, flying without ammunition, veered into Polish airspace a year ago.

All three intelligence chiefs agreed that Russia’s campaign of sabotage in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, described as a “gamechanger” the recent armed drone incident at Leipzig airport, which German authorities have attributed to Russian intelligence. “To have an armed UAV drone sent in to a busy airport in the middle of Europe … If you have attacks that could result in losses of life or losses of very critical infrastructure that have a huge implication for society, I think that is a gamechanger,” Nilsson said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Riga.

Mežviets said Russia is moving from randomized sabotage and arson attacks intended to sow panic to more specific targets linked to Western backing for Ukraine. “We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure. Right now we see a move towards defence industry targets,” he said. “If you do this then the psy-op effect is reached anyway, so you get both things in one.”

Koudelka described Moscow’s current tactic as “escalate to de-escalate,” with the Kremlin pushing at weak points in Western societies to reduce support for Ukraine. “They believe if they escalate enough then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,” he said. Nilsson said several goals drive the recent intensification of sabotage activity: reducing support for Ukraine, introducing splits within NATO, and alarming European populations. “I think Moscow would love Nato to have endless discussion about Article 4 consultations, but coming up with no actions,” he said.

Koudelka noted another effect: the strain on intelligence services’ resources, as authorities must investigate every fire or malfunction as a potential attack. “Now, every fire or every malfunction needs to be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terror attack, and that is a good result for them,” he said.

The escalation fears come as the Trump administration makes another attempt to restart peace negotiations in Ukraine. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also made another trip to Moscow in recent weeks, as well as a first-time trip to Kyiv. President Donald Trump has frequently claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a deal, though European intelligence officials expressed skepticism about the Kremlin’s intentions. “I haven’t seen any signs that there is a serious consideration in Moscow about real negotiations,” Nilsson said. “My assessment is that they are still thinking that they could achieve their strategic objectives, so they are just playing negotiation theatre.”