Middle East crude exports rebound to prewar levels on alternative routes

Refined product exports lag crude rebound at half of 2025 levels

The U.S.-Iran war, which began on Feb. 28, severely curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints — forcing Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, and other major Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates to reroute crude through pipelines and alternative ports that bypassed the strait, according to The Wall Street Journal. Despite attacks on a vital Saudi oil pipeline and threats by Iran-aligned militants to vessels in another shipping corridor, crude exports rebounded as producers found workarounds.

Goldman Sachs estimated that crude exports from Persian Gulf producers reached 19 million barrels a day over the past week through Monday. Crude accounted for nearly 90% of the recovery in the region’s overall oil exports in September, driven by increased shipments through Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through Hormuz is breaking down, and that the country has been unable to move its own crude through the waterway since the U.S. reinstated its maritime blockade in July.

With flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline recently restored, the 10-day average of Middle East crude exports has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day — 98% of prewar levels — J.P. Morgan analysts said.

Ship-tracker Kpler also pointed to a substantial recovery: at least 16.5 million barrels a day of crude left the Gulf region so far in September, in line with prewar levels when excluding Iran. That figure is 10.5 million barrels a day above March’s monthly average, when the war initially choked exports.

Kpler analysts attributed the rebound’s resilience to producer adaptation. “The recovery has already survived three shocks: the squeeze on the Red Sea route, the lapse of the U.S.-Iran MoU, and the September attack on the East-West pipeline,” Kpler analysts said. “Each time, barrels shifted routes.”

The shape of that shift shows in the routing data. Before the war, about 83% of Gulf crude crossed Hormuz. In September, roughly 40% left the region without crossing the strait. According to Kpler, about 60% of September’s crude physically crossed Hormuz, 23% loaded outside the strait — primarily on the Gulf of Oman coast — and 17% left through the Red Sea.

Much of the crude that still crosses Hormuz no longer stays aboard the same tanker. Cargoes increasingly move through a maritime relay: a tanker loaded inside the Gulf crosses Hormuz and transfers its cargo to another vessel off the coasts of Oman or the U.A.E., with the second tanker continuing toward Asia or Europe.

Iran remains the exception. Satellite data reviewed by Goldman showed no seaborne Iranian exports of crude or the main refined products in September. Kpler found Iranian flows near zero following the U.S. blockade. Before the war, Iran exported roughly 1.7 million barrels a day.

Even as crude supply has largely normalized, the availability of fuels that consumers and industrial users rely on remains constrained. Goldman estimated exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain at about half their 2025 average. J.P. Morgan put Middle East product exports at just 58% of 2025 levels, citing infrastructure damage and higher risks of flammability.

The export recovery is easing concerns over global supplies and keeping oil-price gains limited. The Brent crude November contract, which expires on Wednesday, was up 0.5% at $103.05 a barrel, while the more active December contract rose 1.5% to $97.64 a barrel. Front-month West Texas Intermediate November futures traded 1.3% higher at $90.49 a barrel.

But stalled U.S.-Iran talks to end the war, and persistent threats by Yemen’s Houthi militants in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb corridor, are leaving the prospect of further disruptions hanging over the market. The Houthi militants have stepped up attacks in the Red Sea, expanded their footprint along the Yemeni coast and asserted control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, according to the Journal.

Renewed attacks between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt shipping through Hormuz again, while strikes on pipelines and other export infrastructure could undermine the routes built to bypass it. The next test, analysts said, is whether the new export system can handle more barrels — and survive another disruption.