Three small wagers placed hours before news outlets reported Zacharia’s selection
Prediction market operator Kalshi has launched an investigation into a series of trades on its platform that correctly anticipated the selection of conservative commentator Katie Zacharia as President Trump’s next White House press secretary, a company spokeswoman said Friday. The probe focuses on at least three small wagers placed before news outlets began reporting the choice around 2 p.m. ET on Friday.
According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of publicly available Kalshi data, one bettor placed a $19 wager around 10:43 p.m. Thursday and that bet is slated to pay out $1,896 when the market closes. Two additional wagers, for approximately $74 and $80, appeared around 1:41 p.m. Friday — shortly before outlets including the New York Times began reporting the news. Those two bets are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023, respectively.
Observers had not considered Zacharia a front-runner for the position. A conservative commentator who had worked briefly at the Department of Homeland Security and appeared widely as a media commentator, she had been seen on Kalshi as having about a 1% likelihood of being named to the post in the days leading up to the news report.
President Trump confirmed the selection Friday afternoon in a Truth Social post, writing: “I am confident that Katie will deliver strong results for our Country.” The White House did not return a request for comment from the Journal.
A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the investigation and declined to comment further. While trades on the platform are anonymous to the public, Kalshi maintains records of traders’ identities.
The investigation comes months after the White House fired Gabriel Perez, Trump’s teleprompter operator, following his accumulation of more than $100,000 in profits on Kalshi bets tied to the president’s speeches. Perez reached a settlement agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August. The CFTC did not return a request for comment before publication.
Earlier, after a series of well-timed bets related to the Iran war, the White House had sent a memo to staff warning against the use of nonpublic information for private gain. The proliferation of prediction markets has created what the Journal described as “a new temptation for knowledgeable insiders to try to cash in on proprietary information.”
Prediction markets have become increasingly part of the fabric of Washington, the Journal reported, and are particularly popular among young, male staff, some of whom have said in interviews that they are placing wagers on everything from congressional races to the status of legislation.