Pappas leads Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte holds a 52% to 45% lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in her bid for reelection, with 3% of voters undecided, according to an AARP poll cited by The Wall Street Journal. Republicans are looking to Ayotte’s standing at the top of the ticket to lift other candidates on the ballot, including former Sen. John E. Sununu, who trails Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas 51% to 44% with 5% undecided in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
The outcome of both races carries implications for Republicans seeking to hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and on the state’s five-member elected executive council while flipping a competitive U.S. Senate seat in a state Democrats have controlled federally for the past decade. New Hampshire has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2004.
“There’s no question that the Ayotte campaign has got a special sauce that they’ve put together to be very effective in what I think is otherwise going to be a very good year for Democrats around the country,” Jim Merrill, a longtime Republican strategist in New Hampshire, told the Journal.
Ayotte, 58, was first elected governor in 2024 after winning a single Senate term in 2010 — the last time a New Hampshire Republican served in the U.S. Senate. In her first gubernatorial term, she has emphasized what she calls the “New Hampshire advantage” — the state’s low-tax status within New England and quality-of-life benefits — while steering clear of areas where she might end up at odds with the White House, the Journal reported.
She has reprised the lighthearted advertising from her 2024 campaign, in which she appeared alongside her husband, Joe Daley, who joked about her snoring and limited cooking skills. In a new ad, Daley tells her, “you’re a great mom,” prompting Ayotte to ask, “And I’ve gotten better at cooking, right?” Daley mouths “no” to the camera before the ad cuts to them eating Chinese takeout.
During an outdoor Oktoberfest festival in Loudon earlier this month, sponsored by GOP state Sen. Howard Pearl, Ayotte mingled with local Republicans while a cover band performed Tom Cochrane’s “Life is a Highway” and Fleetwood Mac’s “Dreams” and guests sampled beer and nibbled on hamburgers and hot dogs. “[Ayotte’s] a great top of the ticket for us here, and hopefully that transcends down ticket and helps us in some of those races that are a little closer,” Pearl said. “She’s been an independent thinker… I think Granite Staters, they’ve always voted more for the individual than perhaps maybe a party line.”
The AARP poll offered a window into the potential for ticket-splitting between the state and federal races. In the governor’s race, the poll found Ayotte at 52% and Warmington at 45%. In the Senate race, Pappas had an edge at 51% to Sununu’s 44%.
Some Republicans said Ayotte’s popularity could ultimately help Sununu win. “She’s going to benefit from that, but I don’t think there’s going to be another Republican who’s going to benefit from ticket splitting,” Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, told the Journal. Ayotte’s office did not respond to a request for an interview.
Warmington, who previously served on the executive council, has called Ayotte an “absentee governor” on issues including housing, education funding, child care costs and “standing up to Donald Trump.” Warmington said New Hampshire residents “see the damage that she’s doing — the skyrocketing cost of housing and the fact that she’s jacked up the cost of health care… they’ve had it and there’s a real choice in this election.”
Republicans have made Warmington’s past lobbying for Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, a centerpiece of their attacks in a state hard hit by the opioid crisis. Warmington lobbied for the company in 2001 and 2002 and has defended that work, saying she was fighting for patients to get access to healthcare. She has faulted Ayotte for not pursuing litigation against Purdue Pharma as the state’s attorney general.
Ayotte became New Hampshire’s first woman attorney general in 2004, when she was appointed by Republican Gov. Craig Benson and confirmed by the executive council. When Republican Sen. Judd Gregg announced his retirement, Ayotte campaigned for the Senate, narrowly defeating Tea Party-backed lawyer Ovide Lamontagne in the 2010 GOP primary and then easily dispatching Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the general election.
Her political ascent stalled in 2016, when she was defeated for reelection by then-Gov. Maggie Hassan by roughly 1,000 votes. Just a month before that election, Ayotte withdrew her endorsement of Donald Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape surfaced showing Trump making crude remarks about women in 2005. While Ayotte narrowly lost, Republican Chris Sununu — the younger brother of this year’s Senate nominee — won his governor’s bid that year; he condemned Trump’s remarks but still backed him as the Republican presidential nominee.
One example of Ayotte’s balancing act came earlier this year as she responded to a proposed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center in Merrimack, which prompted public outcry after it was reported in late December. In late January, Ayotte said she told officials at the Department of Homeland Security and the White House that Merrimack should be consulted about the proposed plans. In late February, after meeting with then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Ayotte announced DHS would not move forward with the proposed facility.
On the campaign trail, in ads and on social media, Ayotte has largely focused on issues specific to New Hampshire. In one ad, she touts the state’s school cellphone ban. In the one with Daley, she talks about her work to increase housing construction and press utility companies to lower bills.
“She’s done a really good job of being Kelly from New Hampshire,” Merrill said.