GOP strategists issue warnings over Iran war as Dubow tips toward Democrats

Both parties’ voters want affordability and an end to the conflict

Noor Dubow, 44, a dispatcher at a trucking logistics firm in Columbus, Ohio, regularly votes for Republican candidates who he believes align with his economic views, even though he says he has never been a Trump fan and is repelled by some of the president’s dehumanizing rhetoric toward immigrants. After casting an early ballot in the midterm election, Dubow said he was tipping more toward Democrats because of his frustration with Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. He asked both, “Where are the Republicans in Congress?” and “Why aren’t the Republicans holding Trump accountable?”

An AP-NORC poll published the previous week found that, regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 3 elections, voters from both major political parties want the next Congress to focus on making life more affordable and end the war in Iran, which has had enormous ramifications for the global economy. High energy costs and voter fatigue over the nearly eight-month-old war — one Trump predicted at the onset would last a matter of weeks — are weighing heavily on Republican candidates.

Five Republican strategists involved in key races or advising campaign leadership told The Associated Press early in the summer that they had begun seeing warning signs that the war could hurt their candidates if the conflict did not wind down soon. The strategists, who were not authorized to discuss internal party data publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, privately acknowledge that the war is severely damaging the party’s push to retain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency. Rising gasoline prices are driving up costs across nearly every sector as new hostilities emerge.

Trump often describes the conflict as a “little detour,” even though he once promised to keep the United States out of foreign wars. He has consistently downplayed its economic impact while rallying supporters to try to keep the GOP’s grip on both chambers of Congress. Trump repeatedly insists that the war’s end is near, only to threaten that a new, intensive round of bombing could very well be in the offing once the election passes — often within the same campaign speech or a single exchange with reporters. He argues that elevated gas prices are a temporary inconvenience worth paying to defang Iran.

At a weekend rally in Michigan, Trump said he had no regrets about launching the war and that its economic impact had been less severe than he expected. “I thought gas would be double or triple. And it’s a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs,” he said. His mixed message has left Republican candidates in a difficult, if not untenable, position, said Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory. “Trump’s messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate,” Borick said. “For voters disappointed with the direction of the conflict, there’s little by way of the president’s claims that would change their negative outlook.”

The conflict has spread, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels carrying out a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure and airports. A Saudi-led coalition has responded with its own deadly attacks on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. Over the weekend, the State Department said it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after receiving intelligence that Iran had stepped up efforts to target American personnel in the region and elsewhere.

In June, after Trump forged an interim ceasefire agreement with Tehran, Trump and White House officials appeared more confident. But the deal unraveled within weeks. At that point, campaign officials in some battleground races became more forceful during internal conversations, as House districts Trump won easily in 2024 looked increasingly competitive, the strategists said. As the Labor Day holiday passed, strategists said internal polls showed voters were more frequently tying the war to higher grocery prices and travel costs. Trump has dismissed critics who argue the war is driving an affordability crisis as pushing a “hoax” or “scam” invented by Democrats. But internal campaign polling suggests Trump’s argument has not resonated with American voters, the strategists said.

Diesel prices continue to hover near all-time highs in the United States, creating trouble for Republicans in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, which find themselves knotted in competitive races with Democrats. The national average price per gallon has hovered above $4 since the middle of June. Oil prices peaked in May, fell in June and surged again in September as Trump threatened to escalate the conflict before backing off and suggesting a deal could be around the corner.

Some Republican voters who say they support Trump’s decision to launch the war admit gas prices are testing their patience. Clay Coey, 59, said he sometimes cringes when he fills the tank of his 2010 Chrysler Sebring, even as he says he is willing to temporarily pay higher gas prices to eliminate what he sees as a major security threat to the United States. “Do I like it? No, I drive this old beast,” said Coey, an auctioneer from DeWitt, Michigan. “However, there does come a point in time where you have to sit here and say, what is worth the cost?”

Some voters say Trump fumbled by predicting the war would be over in a matter of weeks. Elizabeth Marlett, 61, of Moville, Iowa, said she wished Trump had avoided setting a timeline and wished he would order the U.S. military to act more forcefully to force Tehran to capitulate. Still, she is sticking with Trump. “We need to support our commander in chief, even if things take longer than expected,” said Marlett, a small-herd beef rancher from Iowa’s GOP-heavy northwest. “That’s life, and we can’t run from something we’ve started.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to start the war has been seen by some supporters as a betrayal of a central tenet of the Republican leader’s “America First” campaign pledge: the promise to keep the United States out of the sort of “forever wars” that bogged down some of his recent White House predecessors. Sean O’Brien, 21, a student at Auburn University in Alabama, said Trump’s Iran decision left him “very disillusioned.” O’Brien attended the Conservative Political Action Conference earlier this year and is now rethinking his allegiances. “At the moment, I expect to vote Democratic,” said O’Brien, who considers himself an independent.

Only a few elected Republicans have parted ways with Trump over the Iran conflict. Trump has said the midterm elections will have no bearing on how he approaches the conflict, even as he campaigns for the GOP to retain both chambers. Republican candidates are balancing support for the president’s policy against voter concerns about fuel prices, grocery costs, travel and the war’s duration.

Thomas Beaumont reported from Sioux City, Iowa. AP journalists Patrick Aftoora-Orsagos in Columbus, Ohio, and Jacqueline GaNun in DeWitt, Michigan, contributed.