Open Secrets projects record US midterm spending of $11.9 billion

Elon Musk leads individual donors as outside groups funnel money into key races

Open Secrets, an independent organization that tracks campaign finance, projected that total spending in the 2026 US midterm campaign would reach $11.9 billion, nearly $12 billion (£9 billion). The projection, based on trends in past cycles, would make the election the most expensive midterm on record, with the election scheduled for November 3.

BBC Verify’s review found that most spending was being driven by outside political groups, including Super Political Action Committees, or Super PACs, as the groups poured large sums into key races. Rules limit how much people, parties and political action committees, or PACs, can give directly to candidates.

Super PACs can accept unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations, labor unions and other political committees. The money cannot be given directly to candidates, but Super PACs can spend it to support candidates indirectly. Candidates, parties and outside groups must report their spending to the Federal Election Commission, although complete totals will not be available until after the midterm elections.

Federal Election Commission external filings through mid-October showed more than $9.5 billion had been spent during the 2026 cycle. PACs and Super PACs accounted for about $5.5 billion, more than half of that total, and their spending during the last couple of months had almost doubled. Open Secrets’ projection is about 30% higher than the amount spent during the 2022 midterms.

The Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal-leaning think tank, reported that the top 40 donors gave $2.4 billion through October 14, a record high for that point in a midterm cycle. Michael Beckel, a US campaign finance expert, said, “Spending in the 2026 midterms is shattering records, with more of the money coming from the wealthiest donors and groups this election.”

Organizations can contribute to PACs as well. Geosor Corp and Fund for Policy Reform, both founded by billionaire financier George Soros, gave a combined $102 million to liberal groups. Aside from Soros, former New York City mayor and businessman Michael Bloomberg was the biggest Democratic donor, giving more than $60 million.

Federal Election Commission filings showed several billionaires, including Jeff Yass, who runs one of the world’s largest trading firms, and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, the owners of a US business supply company, giving more than $100 million to Republican causes this campaign.

Elon Musk gave by far the most of any individual, donating almost half a billion dollars as of October. He gave most of the money to America PAC, the Super PAC he set up in 2024, and the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Most of his money was spent in the Texas Senate race, supporting Republican candidate Ken Paxton, who is running against Democratic candidate James Talarico. Many of Musk’s companies are based in Texas. A BBC image caption said Musk had worked for the Trump administration the previous year and had attended events at the White House since.

America PAC’s investments in the Texas race total more than $45 million. The group also invested around $10 million in each of the Senate races in Michigan and Ohio.

“Crypto companies have also been very active this cycle, with Ripple and Coinbase combining to give $63 million to fund Super PACs promoting the crypto industry’s interests,” Brendan J Glavin of Open Secrets said.

Campaigns and political groups spend money reaching voters by hiring staff for on-the-ground voter outreach, hosting campaign events such as rallies and conducting internal polling. Most of the money, however, goes to advertising, especially on television. AdImpact, an external advertising-tracking firm, tracked $11.15 billion in advertising through the end of October.

Beckel said, “Traditional broadcast television remains the top beneficiary of advertising expenditures, though expenditures on digital ads continue to increase.” AdImpact tracked that most advertising money was spent in the Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Ohio, followed by Iowa and Maine.