GOP-aligned ad spending surges past Democrats in Senate tossup races

Senate, House GOP funds reserve fall ad time for final weeks

Republican-aligned groups are pouring money into a series of Senate and House battleground races in the final weeks before midterm elections, deploying one of their biggest financial advantages over Democrats as the party seeks to overcome electoral headwinds that include President Trump’s unpopularity and voter discontent with the economy and rising fuel prices. The September ad totals represent a sharp turn upward from all of August, when the Republican-aligned spending edge across the 10 Senate battlegrounds was about $9 million.

Democratic candidates have mostly outraised their Republican opponents in candidate-level fundraising. Republicans have maintained a significant lead among their network of super PACs and party committees, and are now opening the spending spigot in significant ways, according to the AdImpact data. September activity, when most party primaries have completed, serves as an early indicator of how the two parties may fare in head-to-head general-election spending.

The September surge has tilted every Senate tossup race on Cook’s list in Republicans’ favor, the first time that has happened this election cycle. In House elections, Republican-aligned spending this month is ahead of Democrats in 15 of 21 races that Cook rates as a tossup.

Texas saw the most dramatic uptick of any state. Advertisers supporting Paxton, the Republican candidate, have spent $62 million in September compared with about $17 million behind Talarico, his Democratic opponent. Earlier this month, MAGA Inc. disclosed spending $10 million on streaming television ads to back Paxton and oppose Talarico — its first multimillion-dollar spend of the election cycle. On Saturday, the group reported spending an additional $5 million. The group currently has less than $1 million in ads booked through the election, according to AdImpact, but other GOP-aligned groups are readying large spends. The Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $169 million in advertising, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, its House counterpart, has reserved $155 million. Two new super PACs aligned with MAGA Inc. — No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC — are also planning multimillion-dollar spending.

Senate Republicans have urged their colleagues to make a robust pitch on steps the administration and party have taken to address inflation. During a Senate luncheon last week, Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine) spoke of the need to pitch voters on economic prescriptions beyond tax cuts, including permitting reform for affordable housing and energy projects.

In Georgia and North Carolina — races considered leaning toward Democrats — the ad-spending margins are tighter, and activity ramped up in August. Spending supporting Sen. Jon Ossoff (D., Ga.) totaled $35 million since August, compared with $26 million for his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Collins. In North Carolina, ad spending favoring former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley totals $33 million since August, ahead of $25 million for former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat.

Republicans had sought to make defeating Ossoff a top priority, but he has vastly outraised Collins, and polls show him with a comfortable lead in the battleground state. In North Carolina, Cooper has held a steady advantage against Whatley. If Republicans continue to trail in both races, the party may need to divert resources into other states — including GOP-leaning Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall faces an upstart challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton; Ohio, where GOP Sen. Jon Husted is fending off former Sen. Sherrod Brown; and Alaska, where Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola.

Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.), who has traveled extensively in support of GOP candidates and had planned stops this weekend in Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska, said he was confident the party’s funding would be sufficient. “I think we’re going to have enough money. I think if we have a bad result in the midterms, I don’t think we’ll be able to blame it on money,” Kennedy said. He added: “You’ve got both sides basically saying the other side’s worse than me, and it’s hard to win an election like that. Thank God, I’m sorry for the country, but politically, thank God that the Hamas wing of the Democratic Party is in control. Otherwise, we’d be total lunch meat.”

Democrats hope that an expanded map of races into once-safe Republican districts will put Trump and his allies on the defensive and force difficult spending decisions in the final weeks, negating some of the Republican fundraising advantage. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) said “the hole that Donald Trump has dug for the Republicans and continues to dig every day is not something that can be made up with a few $100 million worth of feel-good ads,” citing voter anger about the economy, the Iran war and corruption.

In Maine, Collins’ defense remains a top priority for Republicans; she is the lone GOP senator seeking re-election in a state carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Backers of Collins have spent about $41 million since August, more than the $29 million for her Democratic challenger, former state Senate president Troy Jackson. Jackson entered the race in August as a replacement for scandal-plagued Graham Platner and has sought to catch up quickly in fundraising. “I’m not deterred by that. I mean, we’re going to be outspent,” Jackson said, pointing to an outpouring of volunteers to his campaign. Collins has targeted Jackson’s voting record in the state legislature, including on taxes and spending. “I don’t know that there is a tax that Troy has seen that he hasn’t liked,” Collins told reporters earlier this month.

In Ohio, more than $78 million has been spent since August supporting Husted, ahead of $57 million for Brown. Senate Democrats in Washington also huddled last week with Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee in Michigan who hopes to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D., Mich.). Both Peters and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D., Mich.) have pressed their colleagues to support El-Sayed’s campaign against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.), who was narrowly defeated by Slotkin in 2024. Michigan remains among the most competitive Senate races in the nation, and a sharp increase in advertising this month on the GOP side raised spending since August to about $39 million for Rogers versus $35 million for El-Sayed.

“Let’s all agree we have a broken and horrible Frankenstein of a campaign finance system, but when they’re swamping us with President Trump’s money, I’m going to rally other Democrats to try and gin up a response,” Slotkin said, whose 2024 Senate victory saw more than $200 million in spending in the race.

In ad reservations, which can change, Republicans are scheduled to outspend their Senate opponents in several states, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Democrats have reserved more advertising time in Georgia, according to AdImpact.

Marc Short, a former Trump White House aide and adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, said party fundraising is less important than it used to be because of the shifting media landscape. “There are so many other ways to get your message out,” Short said, adding: “Would you rather have the money than not? Yes. Is it a factor it used to be? No.”