Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups
Millions of Americans were voting on November 3 in the 2026 US midterm elections, with Republicans and Democrats contesting control of Congress. The result could have a significant impact on President Donald Trump’s presidency. BBC News said media outlets might not project the congressional outcome for hours, days or even weeks, depending on how close the races were and which contests proved decisive.
Congress comprises two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. A party needs 218 seats to win a House majority and 51 seats for an outright Senate majority. A 50-50 Senate split would give control to the vice president’s party through the tie-breaking vote.
A voter poll was scheduled for release at 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT), with BBC News saying the release was expected to indicate the issues at the forefront of voters’ minds. Polls in Kentucky and Indiana were scheduled to close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT), and first results were expected after that time. Kentucky and Indiana were considered safe Republican bets, while Vermont was viewed as a safe Democratic result. BBC News said the early returns would not indicate much about the overall result.
The battleground schedule then moved through several closely watched Senate contests. At 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT), polls closed in Ohio, where Republican Senator Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown were neck-and-neck. Results from Ohio could give a clue about how the night might unfold. At 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT), voting ended in Maine between Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson and in most of Michigan, Kansas and Texas. At 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT), polls closed in Iowa and the remaining Central Time Zone portions of Michigan, Kansas and Texas. In the hours that followed, a picture might start to emerge over whether things were going to plan for the Republicans or the Democrats. At 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT), voting ended in Alaska, the last battleground state, where Democrat Mary Peltola faced incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a close Senate race. A ballot also included a second candidate named Dan Sullivan, whose inclusion had made headlines.
BBC News said its analysts would focus on the competitive races, which were expected to indicate how well things were going for Trump. Ohio and Maine could also provide early indications of the electorate’s mood. US media outlets use models to project how a state has voted before every ballot has been counted. Projects happen when outlets believe a party or a candidate has gained a lead that cannot be beaten. Closely fought states could take longer to project, and the overall timing would depend on how tight the races were and which contests proved decisive.
Independent elections analyst Cook Political Report classified Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as Senate toss-ups. Six of those seats were held by Republicans and one by Democrats. Democrats needed to win four of the toss-up seats, plus four races classified as likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51 and take control of the Senate.
Losing Michigan would make a Democratic Senate majority much harder to reach. BBC News described Democrat Abdul El-Sayed as “a left-wing political outsider” competing against Republican Mike Rogers, whom the outlet described as a Trump ally and former FBI agent. Polls also suggested that former teacher James Talarico had a chance of winning Texas, which would make him the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeated Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and a close Trump ally.
The current Republican House majority was also thin. Republicans held 218 representatives, exactly the number needed for control, plus one independent who votes with them. BBC News reported that Cook Political Report identified some of the most closely watched House races in east-coast states, including New York’s 17th District, Pennsylvania’s 8th District and Virginia’s 1st District.
Each state administers its own elections and follows its own rules for counting and processing votes. Some states, including Florida, process early and mail ballots before election day, while others begin tabulating on November 3. Local election officials, sometimes appointed and sometimes elected, verify, process and count individual votes in a process known as canvassing.
State and locality rules specify who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which proceedings are open to the public. Partisan observers can watch the count and, in some states, raise formal challenges. Most states require a formal post-election audit that compares a manual count of ballots with machine totals, although rules vary. Full hand counts are generally reserved for recounts.
Tight races take longer and can lead to recounts or legal challenges. Mail ballots also take longer to count because officials must process envelopes and verify signatures. More than 30 states allow ballots to be processed before election day, but other states do not, meaning it may take days to get results. Because every state has its own rules and policies, some delays can be built into the system.
California requires ballots to be posted before or on election day and counts them if they arrive within seven days of the election.
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting could take considerably longer than tabulation elsewhere in the country. Controversy over the state’s ballots could also complicate matters and lead to legal challenges.
After all votes have been included and recounts have been completed, results are certified first at the local and county level. Statewide certification usually follows through a state canvassing board of the secretary of state. The governor then typically signs certifications for House and Senate winners to be sent to Congress. Candidates can request recounts in close races, and some states trigger them automatically within a specified margin. Candidates can also file legal election contests alleging irregularities. Congress has the final word: losing House and Senate candidates can file contests under different chamber processes, and BBC News reported that both chambers can, theoretically, refuse to seat someone or order an investigation.
BBC News used the 2022 midterms to illustrate how long uncertainty can last. Republicans and Democrats were still in a tight race for control of Congress on 9 November, a day after voting. Republicans were favored to win the House, while control of the Senate remained narrowly balanced. The full picture took several days. CBS News projected on 17 November that Republicans had secured the 218 seats needed for a House majority. Counting in Nevada’s crucial Senate race took four days, and Democrats’ narrow victory gave them 50 seats and retained control because then-Vice President Kamala Harris held the tie-breaking vote. Georgia’s contest required a runoff because no candidate reached 50%, and Democrats won the seat when results became available on 7 December.
Outgoing members of Congress leave office on Sunday, January 3. Because the date falls on a weekend, new members may take office on the same date unless Congress passes a law setting a different day.
Deirdre Finnerty and Bernd Debusmann Jr wrote the BBC News report, with additional reporting by James FitzGerald, Yazmina García-Fernández, Tom Geoghegan and Mike Hills.