Democrats' midterm gains open the 2028 race as Republicans absorb broad losses

Shapiro’s commanding swing-state win draws questions about 2028 ambitions

With final 2026 midterm votes still being counted on Wednesday, the 2028 presidential race began to take shape as Democrats claimed the House majority and moved toward a Senate majority while Republicans absorbed broad losses. Democrats celebrated their gains and began promoting themselves, while dejected Republicans scrambled to distance themselves from President Donald Trump. The Republican with the most at stake was likely Vice President JD Vance, who entered Tuesday night as the GOP’s leading presidential prospect and woke up on Wednesday far more vulnerable — like any Republican close to Trump.

Vance spoke about the Republican losses without defending President Donald Trump’s war against Iran. In a morning post on X, Vance wrote, “The reason we lost is the war.” He then wrote, “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.” He added, “And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

Voters still processing the midterm campaign may not welcome an immediate pivot to 2028, but prospective candidates face an urgent timetable to move toward a White House bid in what is expected to be a wide-open contest in both parties. The first presidential primary votes are expected in little more than a year, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear have already held preliminary conversations with potential presidential campaign staff. The results also strengthened the political profiles of Democratic governors and senators who could seek a broader national role.

Among the Democratic governors, Maryland’s Wes Moore and Illinois’ JB Pritzker won decisive reelection victories and delivered victory speeches. Outgoing California Gov. Gavin Newsom had worked to boost Democratic candidates across the country, especially in the South, and led Proposition 50, California’s response to a Republican mid-decade gerrymander in Texas. Newsom also had a personal role in Democrats winning the House majority.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro arguably had the most impressive performance, posting a commanding win in one of the nation’s most important swing states. He also helped Democrats win control of the state legislature and flip four congressional seats, drawing immediate questions about his presidential ambitions during national television interviews Wednesday morning.

CBS anchor Gayle King asked: “The numbers were so big, I was wondering if you want to take this opportunity … to say, ‘You know what, I’m in for 2028.’ Or do you want to talk about something else?” Shapiro laughed and said, “I want to answer all your other questions, Gayle.” He then said: “People want fundamental change, real reform. More importantly, they want their leaders to get stuff done, they want real results.”

The expected Democratic Senate majority opened the prospect of new national figures, including Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed. Progressives seized on El-Sayed’s victory in the Midwest as they quietly discussed who might take the progressive mantle from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who at age 85 has ruled out another presidential bid. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains the dominant name in that conversation, but at 37, it was unclear if she would take that step.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said of El-Sayed’s win: “This changes the 2028 presidential race.” He added, “A bold anti-establishment economic fighter can win battleground states. Period.”

The Republican losses could provide openings for some Republican hopefuls. Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a former Trump rival, called the losses “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country.” He held up Florida’s election of Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate as an exception and an example of “how you can deliver big results.”

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has openly weighed another White House run, invested significant time and resources trying to help Republicans who lost, particularly in his home state.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has considered a third presidential bid, was among the prominent Trump critics whose standing improved after the results.

Emboldened by the midterm results, however, the Democratic field is eager to move forward. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker made his own 2028 intent clear. The former presidential candidate began the cycle with more than $20 million in his federal campaign account and used a victory speech to call for a continuing Democratic movement. “We have ended an election, but this has got to be the start of a movement,” Booker said. “America, tonight is the start of our comeback, baby.”

Democrats could point to governors, senators and House winners who had strengthened their national profiles, while the Republican losses could provide an opening for former Trump rivals like DeSantis. The first primary votes were still little more than a year away, but the presidential selection process had already begun.