Four net House seats separate Democrats from control

Democrats entered the final stretch of the 2026 US midterm elections with an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 36%, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey cited by The Guardian, and Donald Trump entered the same stretch with a 32% approval rating. Republicans enter the election with what The Guardian called a paper-thin 218-214 House majority and a 53-47 Senate lead, and the outlet described opinion polls as indicating a rising “blue wave.” Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and three US territories and decide thousands of state legislative contests.

The Guardian reported that Trump’s 32% approval rating was the lowest for any president before the midterms since Harry Truman’s Democrats were defeated 80 years ago. Past midterms have brought heavy losses for presidents’ parties: Bill Clinton lost 54 House seats in 1994, Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010 and Trump lost 40 in 2018. The Guardian assessed that Trump appeared unlikely to defy that pattern.

Tens of millions of early votes have already been cast, with habitual Republican turnout lagging behind Democratic participation in critical battlegrounds. The Guardian reported that conservative super PACs backed by billionaire Elon Musk, who has poured $366m into efforts to save Republican candidates, were directing emergency funds into strongholds including Kansas, Iowa and Texas.

Donald Trump, 80, has held dozens of campaign rallies before next week’s US midterm elections and remains convinced that he can prove the doubters wrong again and help Republicans retain control of the US Congress. At this summer’s Republican convention in Dallas, he made a five-word plea: “Pretend I’m on the ticket.” The Guardian reported that the appeal resonated with Democrats and helped make the midterms a test of Trump’s second term in the White House. It said opinion polls suggested the outcome would be negative for Trump, would undercut his image of invincibility, reshape the final two years of his presidency and set the stage for a contest over who would succeed him.

Michael Steele, a former chair of the Republican National Committee and a co-host of the MS Now network’s the Weeknight, said, “Donald Trump nationalised these races, and now they’ll lose seats because of it.” He added, “He made himself the referendum. Individual candidates wanted to run their individual races but he told them: ‘Put me on the ballot.’ He has political instincts for himself, but no political instincts for the party.”

The Guardian reported that, for months, Republican strategists urged their candidates in tight suburban races to keep national politics at arm’s length and focus on local accomplishments, perhaps hoping that Trump would quietly concentrate on his day job in Washington. Trump instead toured the country, denouncing Democrats as “communists” while touting a strong economy, a secure border and a historic drop in violent crime. His rallies also included boasts about his White House renovations and jokes that his own supporters could not afford a hamburger at his Mar-a-Lago club. The Guardian noted that Trump sometimes addressed cost of living and other everyday concerns of voters.

The Senate battlefield widens

Democrats appear heavily favored to pick up the four net seats required to capture the House of Representatives, but their path to taking the Senate is a steeper climb. The Guardian reported that Trump’s 32% approval rating and the economic effects of the Iran war have expanded the Senate battlefield into states that voted for him by double digits in 2024.

In Ohio, former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is mounting a comeback bid against incumbent Republican Jon Husted. The Guardian described Brown as a “grizzled populist” with deep ties to organised labour who has capitalised on working-class anger over fuel prices and plant closures, as well as local opposition to datacentres. In a recurring feature of his rallies in the state, Trump has frequently veered off-script to praise Husted’s physique: (“His ass was like a big piece of muscle,” according to the president.)

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is up against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a 41-year-old doctor and former Detroit health director bidding to become the first Muslim senator in the US. Republicans have targeted El-Sayed over his previous foreign-policy statements, while pro-Israel super PACs have poured millions of dollars into the state to defeat him. The Guardian reported that Trump had “baselessly accused a Muslim candidate of being a terrorist” and had launched “Islamophobic tirades,” including calling El-Sayed a “jihadist.”

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington, said: “El-Sayed is the biggest test for progressives. If he wins stateside in an industrial heartland state like Michigan, progressives will argue they have the upper hand heading into 2028.” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former official in the Clinton White House, cautioned: “The progressives are a minuscule portion of the Democratic party. This is an overblown story. The moderates are winning the vast majority of these races across the country.”

In Maine, veteran Republican senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson, a lumberjack and former president of the state senate. Collins has appeared with independent former Senator Joe Manchin while seeking distance from Trump, and Democrats have criticized her votes for conservative Supreme Court justices and other Trump priorities.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is mounting a challenge to Republican senator Dan Sullivan. The contest has entered a legal dispute after the justice department sought to block certification of a possible Peltola victory. Her allies reportedly helped recruit a decoy candidate with the name Dan Sullivan to confuse voters, while her campaign denies involvement.

In Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide office since 1994, the Latino shift was evident, The Guardian reported. James Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative and former public school teacher, is challenging Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton in what The Guardian called “the most expensive Senate race in history.” The Guardian also described Talarico as someone who “preaches a gospel of social justice.” Paxton, a staunch Trump ally, has faced years of corruption allegations, personal scandal and securities-fraud charges. Despite $300m in outside Republican spending, led by Musk, Talarico holds a narrow lead in most polls.

Jacobs views Texas as a bellwether for the post-Trump Republican party. “If Paxton loses, it’s going to send a very powerful signal to future Republican leaders about how they handle immigration,” he said. “It proves that attacking the fastest-growing part of the electorate is political suicide. Texas is a devastating referendum on Donald Trump.”

Costs, the Iran war and Latino voters

Trump won the presidency in 2024 after promising to curb inflation and lower prices; The Guardian reported that the opposite has happened. Across the country, voters faced higher fuel and food costs, which The Guardian said were worsened by two choices in Trump’s second term: tariffs on foreign goods and the decision to launch airstrikes on Iran in February. Chris Matthews, a political commentator and former presidential speechwriter and congressional aide, said, “He’s losing on cost of living and affordability. Older people on limited incomes are focusing on what it costs to live each month. It’s much more macro than Maga. No matter what he does for Maga people, the power of macroeconomics is much stronger and people are going to vote against him.”

The Iran war, which Trump frequently downplays as a “little detour,” has affected global energy markets. Diesel prices have risen, affecting agriculture and freight transport from the Central Valley of California to the grain belts of Iowa and Ohio. Kamarck said voters could directly attribute their economic concerns to the president. “There’s a very clear line between his actions and the things people don’t like,” she said. She added, “It’s going to be the tariffs and it’s going to be the war: both self-inflicted wounds. He didn’t have to raise tariffs; that was his theory of the world, which turned out to be wrong. Bombing nuclear sites in Iran was one thing, but going to all-out war turned out to be a mistake. Voters connect his actions to things they don’t like.”

The Guardian reported that frustration had energized Democratic candidates, particularly women running in districts that once seemed out of reach. Jessica Mackler, the president of Emilys List, said voters feel the economic system is actively stacked against them. Emilys List is backing 247 female candidates this cycle, according to The Guardian. “Voters understand that the corruption coming out of Washington is directly linked to why they can’t get ahead, and why they find it so hard to make ends meet,” Mackler said. “Cost of living is a huge driver but voters are desperate for new leadership who have lived their pain and understand it.”

Steele argued that core conservative voters feel increasingly betrayed by a president who promised to avoid foreign entanglements and bring down costs. “Donald Trump lied to his tribe … He said he wouldn’t engage us in foreign wars; we’re now turning the corner into a year of a war he started and people are saying: ‘I can’t even afford to put gas in my car.’”

The Guardian said the coalition that in 2024 powered Trump to what it called “the greatest comeback in modern political history” had suffered “blow after blow”: his failure to fully release the Jeffrey Epstein files, which the outlet said detail ties of the elite to the child sex offender; the growth of datacentres in rural communities; an eight-month-old war in Iran that he said would end in weeks; and a relentless rise in the cost of fuel and food. Anger over his broken promises was compounded by what the outlet called “a whiff of corruption” and a perception that he is using the presidency to enrich himself and his family. Trump accepted a plane from Qatar to use as Air Force One, decorated the Oval Office in gold, demolished the White House East Wing to make way for a $400m ballroom and is planning a triumphal arch in Washington. His personal fortune has surged, from $2.3bn in 2024 to $6.5bn, according to Forbes.

The Guardian said the erosion of support among Latino voters appeared to be the development in the 2026 midterms most alarming to Republican strategists. In 2024, Trump made historic inroads with Latino men, prompting declarations that he had assembled a permanent multiethnic, working-class coalition. After taking office, Trump launched what The Guardian described as a high-visibility deportation campaign featuring heavily armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in cities and agricultural hubs.

Larry Jacobs, founder and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: “Donald Trump launched his radical deportation strategy and it has powerfully alienated the fastest-growing part of the electorate. A year ago, Republicans thought they had established a new Hispanic coalition that would guarantee five new seats in Texas alone. They may lose all of them. Economics is a driving factor, but opposition to Trump’s deportation policies has contributed massively to the magnitude of the defections.”

Olsen said the Latino shift is visible across public polling and state-level data. “Whether it’s a 15-point shift or a 30-point shift, it’s a big deal. Unless every piece of evidence we have is wrong, Latino voters are having serious buyers’ remorse.”

Election integrity remains a broader national concern. The Guardian characterized Trump’s repeated claims of election fraud as unsubstantiated, while Democrats and voting-rights organisations have prepared legal teams and observers for possible disputes or federal interference. The administration says federal election monitors will follow the law, and has denied plans to send troops or immigration agents to polling stations.

Tara Setmayer, a co-founder and chief executive of the Seneca Project, a women-led political action committee, said: “I am extremely worried. We have seen what Donald Trump has done when he had guardrails; now he has none. He has power and people who are aligned with him in the attack on our election integrity in positions of power. This is a great concern to me because Trump is looking at the sun setting on his presidency and we all know that he is deathly afraid of being out of power. He’ll do anything to stay in power, even if that means creating another constitutional crisis to try to stop Congress from being seated. We cannot suffer from a lack of imagination of what these people are capable of.”

Governance and the 2028 contest

The Guardian projected that a Democratic victory in either chamber would limit Trump’s domestic legislative agenda, leaving his administration more dependent on executive orders. Hakeem Jeffries, who would likely become the first Black speaker of the House, has pledged to immediately use subpoena power to investigate administration corruption, foreign policy decisions in Iran and the personal financial enrichment of the Trump family. Jacobs said: “It’s going to be a fistfight. I’m not expecting major legislation to pass. I think there will be extensive investigations of Donald Trump and his cabinet, and that’s what we’re going to get for two years.”

Steele believes a Democratic House would immediately assert control over federal spending. “Congress will freeze money on projects like tearing down the East Wing for Trump’s ballroom, and they’ll reassert oversight over the Kennedy Center,” he said, referring to the national arts complex and living memorial to the 35th president. “Trump is effectively a lame duck now. The rest of the country knows his time is coming to an end.”

Before the last vote is counted, The Guardian said attention was likely to turn to the 2028 presidential contest. The Guardian said a significant midterm loss could accelerate the Republican search for a successor to Trump. It reported that JD Vance was positioned to succeed Trump within the Maga movement, while Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Secretary of State Marco Rubio could also contend. Steele said: “Republicans need to recognise that the future of the party does not rest solely with the Maga base. It rests with winning back the suburban, moderate and Hispanic voters this administration has isolated.”

Facing pressure from parts of its base, Democrats were also preparing for a contest to decide the party’s future direction and how it would position itself after the Trump administration. The next Democratic presidential candidate remained uncertain, with outgoing California governor Gavin Newsom, Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former vice president and 2020 nominee Kamala Harris among those regularly mentioned. Bill Whalen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution thinktank in Stanford, California, said, “Voters are tired. When you combine high prices, the endless argument and the constant noise of Donald Trump, people want a change from the status quo.” He predicted, “On November 3, the voters are going to speak – and Donald Trump is not going to like what they have to say.”