Talarico’s victory complicates Republican control of a narrow Senate majority
Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, giving Democrats a seat in a chamber Republicans were defending by a narrow majority. The result was a major setback for President Donald Trump and complicated the Republican effort to retain control of Congress during the 2026 midterm elections. It also complicates Trump’s efforts to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.
Talarico’s victory broke a 38-year Democratic drought in Texas Senate contests, with Lloyd Bentsen, the party’s last Senate winner in the state, winning in 1988. It also marked the first Democratic statewide victory in Texas since 1994. The change came in the country’s second-biggest state, which Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Talarico, 37, is a Presbyterian seminarian, former middle school teacher and state representative. He built his campaign around economic concerns, Christian faith and a message of political unity, seeking independents and Republicans disillusioned with the Trump administration. He argued that the cost of living and the influence of wealthy donors mattered more to Texans than partisan divisions.
Paxton, 63, was the state attorney general and a staunch ally of Trump. He defeated incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter primary, and Trump backed him in the general election. Talarico and Paxton’s race was among the most closely watched contests of the midterm elections.
Talarico’s campaign sought to capitalize on controversies surrounding Paxton’s legal record. The Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 over allegations of corruption and abuse of power, and the state Senate acquitted him. Separate securities fraud charges were resolved in 2024 under an agreement requiring community service, ethics training and restitution. Paxton denied wrongdoing.
The race became one of the most expensive Senate contests in U.S. history, with advertising spending topping $500 million, according to campaign spending estimates. Republican-aligned groups poured hundreds of millions of dollars into efforts to elect Paxton. Elon Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which transferred matching sums to a Super PAC supporting Paxton.
Talarico’s campaign reported raising $64 million in the third quarter, with 97% of donations below $100. The campaign outpaced Paxton’s fundraising despite the spending advantage on the Republican side. Talarico argued that wealthy donors and entrenched interests had too much influence over U.S. politics.
Republican advertising focused heavily on Talarico’s positions on transgender issues, his religious views and his interpretation of scripture. Fact-checkers have challenged claims made in some of the advertisements. Talarico portrayed Paxton as corrupt and argued that Republicans were trying to divert voters from economic pressure, including rising fuel and everyday costs.
Talarico assembled a coalition of independents, younger voters and Republicans disillusioned with Trump. His breakthrough followed repeated near misses for Texas Democrats, including Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 defeat by Ted Cruz. That loss came by just under 215,000 votes, or 2.6%.