Survey projects 81 Bcf build and wider five-year surplus
At 1645 ET on Nov. 4, 2026, U.S. natural gas futures had risen 2.2% to $2.959/mmBtu, extending gains to a second session. At 0909 ET, Nymex natural gas was up 0.7% at $2.916/mmBtu.
NatGasWeather.com said in a note that weather likely had little to do with the advance, although forecasts had turned a bit cooler since the start of the week.
The note tied the buying to politics and geopolitics: “Buying is likely due to politics/geopolitics as oil prices plunge due to Democrats winning the House and Senate to suggest the U.S.-Iran conflict will take on a more peaceful approach.”
Thursday’s storage report was expected to show an 81 Bcf build for last week, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. The projected build would increase the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 58 Bcf from 38 Bcf the week before.
Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics said the impact of the Democratic midterm election wins on U.S. natural gas and electricity was likely to be limited. Rubin cited the Trump Administration’s continued control of the Department of Energy and EPA, along with presidential veto powers, in explaining why he expected the direct effect to be limited.
A direct effect on natural gas and electricity could come through a slowdown in data center construction in Texas, Georgia and Ohio under Democratic governors, Rubin said.
His estimate was preliminary and conditional: “Even if the pace of new data center construction merely slows down across multiple states as permitting times extend, our preliminary reaction is that the slower addition of new electricity demand may reduce projected power sector gas burn gains as much as 2 Bcf/d by 2030.”
The near-term focus was Thursday’s storage report, while the longer-term question was how permitting, data center construction and electricity demand could affect projected gas burn by 2030. The 81 Bcf build was a survey forecast; the 2 Bcf/d estimate was part of Rubin’s preliminary reaction.