AP poll: Under-30 and Hispanic Texas Senate voters back Talarico

  • The AP Voter Poll surveyed more than 5,000 Texas Senate voters and found that about three-quarters of surveyed voters under 30 and roughly 6 in 10 surveyed Hispanic voters backed James Talarico.
  • Democrats won back counties along the border with Mexico that had shifted strongly toward Donald Trump in 2024.
  • Republicans’ gains among conservative Hispanic voters largely disappeared Tuesday, according to AP.
  • Democrats flipped congressional seats despite a map Republicans had gerrymandered to give themselves an upper hand.
  • Democrats won the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, according to AP.
  • Democrats’ capture of the Legislature remained possible, according to AP.

Border counties swing back; Democrats flip congressional seats despite gerrymandering

An AP Voter Poll survey of more than 5,000 Texas Senate voters found that about three-quarters of surveyed voters under 30 and roughly 6 in 10 surveyed Hispanic voters backed Democrat James Talarico. Democrats also won back counties along the border with Mexico that shifted strongly and surprisingly toward Donald Trump in 2024 and flipped congressional seats despite a map Republicans had gerrymandered to give themselves an upper hand. AP reported that Democrats won the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, while Democrats’ capture of the Legislature remained possible.

The Tuesday results gave Democrats the U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s office in Texas, a state of nearly 32 million residents and one of the world’s 10 largest economies. AP described Texas as the Republican Party’s most populous stronghold. Texas Democrats had not won a statewide campaign since 1994. State legislator Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and will become Texas’ first Latina governor; Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, whom AP described as the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general. AP called Talarico and Hinojosa breakout stars.

AP attributed the outcome to voters frustrated over high prices and concerned about government corruption who rejected President Donald Trump’s party. On a national level, AP said the statewide losses would set off alarms for Republicans, who depend on winning Texas in presidential election years to maintain a path to the White House. Just two years earlier, Trump had won Texas by double digits.

Democrats registered a large swing in votes in counties along the border with Mexico that had shifted toward Trump in 2024. AP reported that gains Republicans had made with conservative Hispanic voters largely disappeared Tuesday. The AP Voter Poll found that Talarico built a diverse coalition among the surveyed Texas Senate voters, with most surveyed voters under 30 and most surveyed Hispanic voters backing him.

“This win is for every Texan who has ever wondered if anyone is ever listening,” Talarico said after his Senate result. “I heard you. We heard you. And tonight, the world hears you.”

Hinojosa grew up in the Rio Grande Valley along the border with Mexico and represents a liberal Austin district, AP said. AP also said she distanced herself from the progressive brand she carried in the statehouse and set aside culture-war issues for populist stances on an economy battered by Trump’s tariffs and an unpopular war with Iran.

“The voter have delivered a mandate for change, and it is change they will get,” Hinojosa said. “We will lead with politics of courage, not convenience. Progress will not be halted by partisanship and Texas will bow to no one.”

AP said Hinojosa’s governing approach was likely to open a dramatic political and cultural shift in the Texas Capitol. Over the previous decade, Texas passed one of the nation’s strictest abortion laws, pursued increasingly aggressive immigration enforcement and relaxed gun laws, while serving as the site of some of the nation’s worst mass shootings over the past decade.

Democrats did not win by promising to reverse policies on abortion, guns and transgender rights or to divert public tax money to private education. AP said Democrats instead ran on populist ideas centered on affordability, opposition to artificial intelligence data centers and corruption.

Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posted on social media: “Texas has been the most significant Republican state this century. A Democrat sweep of statewide races — and possible capture of the Legislature — takes away one of the anchors of the modern GOP,” he wrote. “A huge loss.”

Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who also lost Tuesday, said: “Going into 2028, the Republican Party of Texas has serious work to do to begin the process of taking our state back from Democrat control.”

In the Austin suburb of Dripping Springs, registered dietitian Karen Sites, 63, and her daughter Sofia, 21, both voted for Democrats. Both said they had gone to the polls holding their breath after earlier proclamations by Democrats that Texas would be retaken had never come to fruition. Sofia has a transgender sibling and said Talarico’s support of transgender and LGBTQ+ rights was something that drew both of them to his campaign. Sofia said she was also frustrated with Republicans’ policies on data centers and protecting biodiversity. “I’m hopeful,” she said.

AP said the results widened validation for Democrats’ long-deferred expectation that demographic changes in Texas would be followed by a shift in political power. Turning the election wins into governing power was Democrats’ next challenge, AP wrote. Democrats controlled the executive offices, while a capture of the Legislature remained possible.