Democrats' midterm wins set up three paths to reshape U.S. foreign policy

Historian says power of the purse could shift the Iran war’s course

Democrats’ sweeping wins in this week’s midterm elections will put both chambers of Congress under the party’s control, creating new avenues to influence a foreign policy that has reached into American life: the war in Iran has driven up gas prices, while President Trump’s tariffs have raised costs for American businesses. Anne Applebaum, the Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and staff writer at The Atlantic who has spent years studying authoritarianism and the erosion of democratic institutions, laid out three of those avenues on NPR’s Morning Edition: restricting funding for the war, investigating the administration’s foreign policy decisions, and legislation on support for Ukraine.

The electorate’s own verdicts were recorded in polling. According to the Voter Poll conducted by SSRS for several news outlets, including The Associated Press, 63% of voters said the war in Iran was the wrong decision, and nearly three-quarters — 74% — considered the war a major or crucial factor in their vote. A slim majority, 51%, said U.S. support for Israel had been too strong. The economy weighed even more heavily, with 89% of voters calling it a major or crucial factor.

The world was watching, too — sometimes with humor. The results have inspired AI-generated videos, social media memes and newspaper headlines abroad.

The war itself has carried a steep bill. The United States and Israel have carried out military campaigns against Iran since June 2025, and the conflict has cost American taxpayers an estimated $47.1 billion as of mid-October, according to Pentagon figures obtained by The Associated Press. Iranian retaliatory strikes have also targeted U.S. military bases in the Gulf.

Whether the election changes the president’s approach is doubtful, in Applebaum’s assessment. “I don’t expect Trump to change,” she said. “He’s not that interested in what Americans think of his policies.” Timing adds another complication, according to Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, who told NPR’s Hadeel Al-Shalchi that Iran remains wary of renewed attacks and that some supporters of the war may see the next two months, before the new Congress takes office, as their last chance to escalate the conflict.

Once Democrats take control of both chambers, they could turn to one of Congress’s most important powers: deciding how federal money is spent. Lawmakers can seek restrictions in spending bills that would limit the use of federal funds for certain military operations. “You could see them trying to use the power of the purse, the appropriations committees, to end the war or to influence politics,” Applebaum said. She expects that pressure to “change the trajectory of the war sooner or later.”

Congress can also investigate how the administration makes foreign policy decisions, even when it cannot directly reverse them. Applebaum expects lawmakers to examine potential corruption involving people close to Trump and decisions made by his foreign policy team. In a February interview with NPR, she warned about corruption in U.S. foreign policy, saying people around Trump and his family had accepted money from foreign governments and others. On Morning Edition, she raised questions about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s competence and the advice Trump received during the Iran war.

Such investigations could bring more information into public view, but they would not necessarily produce a change in policy. “Congress can’t force the president to make changes,” Applebaum said, noting that Trump can veto legislation. What Congress can offer, she said, is “a different narrative, both about this war and more broadly about American foreign policy.” For that to matter, she said, Democratic leaders would need to move quickly, decide what to investigate and establish their priorities.

Support for Ukraine has crossed party lines in Congress, even as the Trump administration’s approach to Russia has raised questions among lawmakers. Applebaum expects that bipartisan coalition to become more active under Democratic control, including through legislation. “I would expect legislation forcing the president to reimpose sanctions,” she said. The open question is whether enough lawmakers would support such a bill to override a presidential veto — an outcome Applebaum said she could not predict, though she considered it possible given the level of congressional support for Ukraine.

Congress has already sought answers about disruptions to Ukraine’s satellite communications. In October, the Pentagon’s inspector general declined a bipartisan request to investigate slowdowns to Starlink and Starshield services, which Ukrainian officials said had hampered their ability to intercept Russian drones. The Trump administration and SpaceX have offered conflicting accounts of who was responsible. Applebaum expects lawmakers to examine those disruptions further, along with the administration’s negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, including allegations of business dealings involving negotiators. She expects those issues to become “more open, more part of the conversation, more part of criticism.”

Applebaum sees reason for U.S. allies to regain some confidence in American democracy with Democrats set to control Congress. Whether that translates into changes in foreign policy is another question.