Mediators push Iran peace talks on Hormuz and nuclear program after midterms

Trump administration weighs large-scale strikes or diplomacy after the vote

Mediators are pressing negotiations aimed at ending the Iran war, which began in late February, as the Trump administration weighs whether to restart large-scale strikes or focus on diplomacy after Democratic midterm gains. Vice President JD Vance cited the conflict as one of the top factors in the vote, and talks have centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and curtailing Iran’s nuclear program, though significant gaps persist.

Israel moved in tandem with the United States to launch the war against Iran in February. Direct talks have been hard to come by throughout the conflict.

Ahead of the midterm vote, Vance reached out directly to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, whom The Wall Street Journal described as one of the country’s most powerful hard-liners. The approach bypassed Iranians who had been directly involved in earlier talks and were seen as more moderate, among them parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who met with Vance in Pakistan in April. Iranians acknowledged receiving Vance’s letter, which focused on a framework for negotiations rather than specific proposals, and there have been no public indications that the United States has engaged directly with the Iranians since the midterms.

Several mediators have been trying for months to bring the two sides to the negotiating table. On Friday, Trump spoke with Qatar’s ruling emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, to discuss mediation efforts. Qatar has played a leading role in the negotiations with Tehran even though Iran attacked the country during the war. The talks have focused on how to sequence a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global shipping, and how to handle negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran has hailed the Republican losses in the U.S. midterms as a victory for Iran. Tehran has expressed skepticism about the talks publicly, referring to threats by Trump that he was prepared to strike the Islamic Republic after the vote. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a major power center in Iran, has said it remains ready to retaliate and that targets throughout the Middle East and beyond could be hit.

Behind the scenes, mediators said, Iran continues to negotiate a number of proposals and has shown some openness to discussing nuclear issues, but it has yet to offer any concrete compromises.

At home, the war was one of the biggest factors behind the Democratic gains, according to the Journal’s reporting: it drove up diesel and gas prices and put pressure on American households. Incoming members of Congress have vowed to exercise greater oversight over the war, though stopping the conflict would be difficult because of Trump’s national-security powers and his ability to veto legislation.

The election has also exposed differences within the Trump administration. Vance publicly blamed the conflict for the Republican defeat, while Trump has defended his decision to attack Iran and said he would make the same choice again.

Israel, which joined the United States in launching the war, is also at a political crossroads. Opposition parties made gains against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime Iran hawk, in a late October election, but they still need to form a coalition government to unseat him. Netanyahu has threatened to launch new strikes on Iran, even in the run-up to the election.

Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot described Netanyahu’s goal of regime change in Iran during the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign as too ambitious, though his positions on security align broadly with the view that Iran is Israel’s top regional enemy.

The U.S. military has two aircraft carrier groups operating in the Arabian Sea alongside an amphibious assault ship, and 50,000 American troops are stationed in the region. A third carrier group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is on a port call in Singapore before arriving in the Middle East. Analysts say the United States could strike with the forces it has now; two aircraft carrier groups were in the Middle East when the war began in February.