Gallup finds 45% of Americans identify as political independents

Exit polls show an 11-point Democratic margin among young white men

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections highlighted a broader decline in party loyalty among American voters, and The Wall Street Journal tied that American pattern to a parallel shift across western democracies. Gallup found that a record 45% of Americans identify as political independents not affiliated with either party, up 10 percentage points from the early 2000s, while 27% identify as partisan, either Democrat or Republican. A separate analysis by Tufts University of exit polls found that young white men went from voting for Trump in 2024 by a 28-point margin to picking Democratic House candidates by an 11-point margin in the midterms. The Journal reported that voters are fed up with political parties, have lost trust in them and have little patience when they feel politicians are not listening.

Voters are becoming less attached to the parties their parents voted for and are more likely to try out new parties or new political pitches, on the left and right, The Journal reported.

Party identification and voter independence

The Gallup figures describe party identification rather than any single election outcome. A record 45% of Americans now identify as political independents not affiliated with either party, a 10-percentage-point rise compared with the early 2000s, while 27% identify as partisan, either Democrat or Republican.

Independence rises with each younger generation. Gallup found that 56% of Gen Z adults call themselves independent, up from 47% of millennials in 2012 and 40% of Gen Xers in 1992.

Evidence of voter movement in the midterms

The midterms brought a large shift among first-time and younger voters. Exit polls showed young white men going from voting for Trump in 2024 by a 28-point margin to picking Democratic House candidates by an 11-point margin in the midterms, according to an analysis by Tufts University. Some of that movement came from first-time voters, some from Trump supporters staying home and some from voters changing their choices, the analysis said. In Texas, Latinos who had been drifting closer to the Republicans swung hard back to the Democrats, The Journal reported.

The Journal quoted Yuval Levin, a former adviser to President George W. Bush, who wrote that placing the results of this election alongside the last one could show the size of the electorate that can still move between parties. “Putting the results of this election alongside the last one should show us that there are actually many potentially movable and persuadable voters in America, even in lots of places we would not have imagined,” Levin wrote. “The idea that these voters are now committed Democrats is no more plausible than the notion that they were committed Republicans two years ago.”

“Voters are clearly less attached to a party and far more willing to switch,” said Tony Travers, a political scientist at the London School of Economics, who compares the change to a retail shopping experience and attributes part of it to a fast-paced digital world where people expect fast results and simple explanations for complex problems.

Part of what explains the rising number of genuine swing voters in the U.S., The Journal said, is the increased polarization of the two main parties, which have shifted further right and left to cater to their bases rather than the moderate middle, leaving many voters alienated.

Economic strain and immigration attitudes

Voters are also upset about inflation, The Journal reported, adding to a sense among many working- and middle-class voters that they are stuck economically. The Harvard Youth Survey found a record low of 9% of 18- to 29-year-olds saying the country is on the right track, and slightly more now doubt they will be better off than their parents when they get to their age.

On immigration, The Journal reported that most voters in the United States and Europe do not want open borders and feel levels of immigration have been too high, and that the same voters are wary of policies like mass deportations of people already in the country, especially those who have committed no crimes. The report pointed to Latino voters in Texas, who had also been drifting closer to the Republicans before swinging back to the Democrats.

The European comparison

In Europe, the disaffection has overturned politics, The Journal reported, causing many traditional parties in places such as France and Italy to fade and new parties, which The Journal describes as populist nationalist ones, to rise in both countries as well as Germany and the U.K.

The Journal reported that France’s National Rally was the clear favorite in French elections next year, that Vox was likely later this month to gain a share of power in Spain for the first time since the country’s return to democracy, and that right-wing parties were also set to do well in Italy and Poland next year.

Britain provides a longer measure of two-party voting. The percentage of voters supporting one of the two traditional parties, the Conservatives and Labour, went from 97% in the 1950s to 57% in the last general election, The Journal reported. Five parties are now in the mix, or more if regional nationalist parties are counted.

Economic discontent is more pronounced in Europe, where economic growth has flatlined in recent years. Young people have cheap smartphones but too few affordable homes and entry-level jobs, The Journal said, and that discontent has erupted in recent protests and riots in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany.

“There’s clearly a growing discontent among young voters all over Europe, and the institutions are not channeling that discontent properly, which is why we’re seeing so many protests in places like France,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe for the political consulting firm Eurasia Group.

Younger Europeans in particular are trying out new parties and ideas. In Germany, a quarter of voters aged 29 and younger supported Die Linke in last year’s general election, and a quarter of those aged 25 to 44 voted for the AfD, The Journal reported. Only voters aged 60 and older—the largest age group—gave the two traditional center-right and center-left parties more than half the votes.

Voters identify with fewer political leaders and are losing faith in the ability of parties to solve problems, said Peter Matuschek, managing director of the German Forsa polling group. “They’re just frustrated about the lack of convincing leaders and the parties’ refusal to address their problems, and especially their economic concerns,” he said.

Trump’s ballot-box setback is likely to cause Marine Le Pen and other European party leaders to double down on rhetoric promising a quick fix to affordability issues, Rahman said. Le Pen has vowed to keep more money in France by sending less to the European Union and Ukraine, and Germany’s AfD has said it would restrict welfare benefits from immigrants, leaving more for native-born families. “Many countries are likely going to have to elect populists to realize that their quick-fix solutions are unlikely to offer much relief,” Rahman added.

The challenge ahead in 2028

The Journal reported that the trend means greater volatility in elections and bigger swings from one party to another, and that these back-and-forth elections show there is a sizable bloc of moderates. The challenge for both parties in 2028, it said, will be how to motivate a base that has become more ideological and still attract moderates.

The report described voters who remain willing to try new parties and candidates such as Trump, but who lose patience quickly if those options do not deliver. If the Republicans were to lose the next presidential election, The Journal noted, it would be the first time since the late 1800s that four consecutive presidential elections have ousted the incumbent party after just one term.